"Peering into the endless frontier of technology; Insight into the future, leading a new era of research and investment." This report is provided by the "WTR" Research Institute:Members' Twitter IDs: Golden Egg Diary @jindanriji; The Elk Won't Get Lost @crypto_elk_; Forex Brother; Xibei @Asterismone;
WTR on-chain data subscription first round (OG) is officially open!Data provided: WTR self-researched market short-term, medium-term, and long-term on-chain data, as well as some small coin data. First round pricing: 399U/year. Payment supports on-chain and off-chain transfers. Other notes: We have prepared a strategy package for OG users, which has limited slots; the current strategy package only considers opening to first-round OG users. Subscriptions can directly add OG user group; details can be found on X.
Weekly Review
From May 12 to May 19, Ice Sugar Orange peaked near $107,108 and dipped close to $100,718, with a fluctuation range of about 6.34%.
Observing the chip distribution map, there are large chips traded around $93,000, which will provide some support or pressure.
Analysis:
60000-68000 approximately 1.15 million;
76000-89000 approximately 1.08 million;
90000-100000 approximately 1.52 million;
In the short term, the probability of not breaking below $95,000 to $100,000 is 80%;
Important news aspects
Economic News Aspect
U.S. Sovereign Credit Rating Downgrade:
Moody's downgraded the U.S. sovereign credit rating from Aaa to Aa1, with the outlook adjusted to 'stable'. (This is the current downgrade)
Review: S&P already downgraded the U.S. rating from AAA to AA+ in 2011. Fitch downgraded the U.S. rating from AAA to AA+ in August 2023, with a 'stable' outlook (Fitch placed the U.S. AAA rating on 'negative watch' on May 24, 2023).
Currently: The U.S. has lost all AAA top ratings from the three major credit rating agencies.
Reason for Downgrade (Moody's): The U.S. government's debt and interest payment ratios continue to rise, and the fiscal deficit is expected to approach 9% of GDP by 2035.
Federal Reserve Officials' Response:
Federal Reserve Vice Chair: Moody's rating downgrade will be seen as ordinary data when making policy.
Federal Reserve Bostic: Moody's downgrade of the U.S. rating will affect the entire economy and financial markets, impact funding costs, and will observe the downgrade's effect on U.S. Treasury demand.
Federal Reserve Williams: Inflation has been slowly and gradually declining; tariffs may push up inflation and the U.S. unemployment rate; the outlook will become clearer after June and July.
U.S. inflation and monetary policy expectations:
Federal Reserve officials (Williams/Waller): Inflation is slowly declining; the economy may slow this year, and the Federal Reserve can maintain composure in monetary policy decisions.
Arthur Hayes (co-founder of BitMEX, also comments on macro): The yield on 10-year U.S. Treasuries has soared; the Federal Reserve has been 'reminded' that if this spreads to the MOVE volatility index, the printing press is expected to start.
Trump's Comment: The general consensus in the market is that the Federal Reserve should lower interest rates, but Powell, who is a step late, is likely to mess it up again.
Comprehensive Analysis: The combination of Moody's downgrade, U.S. Treasury depreciation, tariff pressures, and potential economic slowdown signals that if U.S. inflation continues its current trend in May, June, and July (April's U.S. CPI at 2.3%), the pressure on U.S. monetary policy/the Federal Reserve may be interpreted as market momentum. (That is, the market expects the Federal Reserve may turn towards easing because of this)
U.S. Politics and Finance:
The House panel has approved Trump's tax cut bill in preparation for a possible vote this week. Last Thursday, Trump's comprehensive tax bill faced obstacles in Congress.
(Washington Post) reported: No media or photography equipment was allowed at the TRUMP dinner on May 22.
Performance of the U.S. Bond Market:
U.S. Treasury: Depreciation, with the yield on 10-year U.S. Treasuries rising to 4.5% and 30-year U.S. Treasuries rising to 5%.
International financial cooperation and innovation:
The Federal Reserve Bank of New York and the Bank for International Settlements (BIS) jointly released a research report, Project Pine, testing the feasibility of implementing monetary policy using smart contracts in tokenized financial markets.
The report points out that smart contracts have the ability to quickly deploy and adjust monetary policy tools, providing flexibility and efficiency for future central bank policy execution in tokenized financial systems, but also emphasizes the need to pay attention to interoperability, data standards, and potential operational risks.
News in the Crypto Ecosystem
U.S. cryptocurrency legislation and regulatory dynamics:
Stablecoin Legislation (GENIUS Bill):
U.S. Senators Bill Hagerty and Kirsten Gillibrand stated that the legislation regulating stablecoin issuers (GENIUS Bill) may enter the debate and approval stage this week.
Executive Director of the U.S. Presidential Digital Asset Advisory Council, Bo Hines, stated that the purpose of the (GENIUS Bill) is to secure the future of U.S. finance and modernize the outdated U.S. payment system, as digital asset technology represents the next generation of the financial system, and the U.S. is ready for this transformation.
SEC Dynamics:
The U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) released FAQs related to crypto asset activities and distributed ledger technology, covering broker custody rules, physical purchases of crypto spot ETFs, net capital handling of BTC and ETH, and rules for transfer agents for securities.
Texas BTC Reserve Bill:
The Texas Strategic BTC Reserve Bill (SB 21) will undergo a second reading in the House on May 20, which is a necessary step before the final vote. If the bill passes the full House vote before the Texas legislative session ends on June 2, it will be submitted for the governor's signature.
Cryptocurrency market performance and analyst viewpoints:
Analyst Daan Crypto Trades: Recently, there has been a persistent CB (Coinbase) spot premium, which is a good sign, indicating solid demand.
Arthur Hayes' Viewpoint:
The altcoin season requires waiting for BTC to break through $110,000 and continue to increase to the $150,000-$200,000 range, which is expected to occur in this summer or early third quarter, and then start rotating to various altcoins.
CryptoQuant Report: ETH/BTC has fallen to a historically rare range; historically, whenever this indicator reaches a similar low, ETH has shown significant increases. Currently, ETH/BTC has rebounded significantly, indicating that investors are betting that the market has bottomed out, and the altcoin season may come soon.
Analyst Apsk32's Viewpoint: BTC usually follows gold's rise several months after it rises; as gold reaches a new high of $3,500 per ounce, if BTC continues along the momentum curve and gold maintains its current price, while BTC price returns to the five-year leading support track, BTC's target price for 2025 may be around $220,000.
Matrixport Report: As the phased downward risks ease, BTC's upward path is becoming clearer. Risk assets, especially BTC, are expected to usher in a favorable window period before July, coinciding with the end of the 90-day tariff suspension agreement and the start of the second quarter earnings season. Another important catalytic factor is FTX's debt repayment process, expected to distribute approximately $5 billion in stablecoins to accounts with claims exceeding $50,000 around May 30, which may push liquidity and market momentum into summer.
Overall market sentiment: "The big coin is tenaciously holding near historical highs, waiting for catalysts, and Ethereum is no longer weak."
Cryptocurrency ETF and Fund Flows:
Last week: The cumulative inflow of the U.S. BTC spot ETF reached $608 million, and the cumulative inflow of the U.S. ETH spot ETF reached $41.8 million.
DeFiLlama Data: The total market value of stablecoins reached $243.838 billion, with a 0.45% increase over the past 7 days.
Institution and large holder position dynamics:
MicroStrategy (Strategy): Increased holdings of 7,390 BTC from May 12 to May 18 at a price of $103,498, totaling $764.9 million.
Metaplanet: Increased holdings of 1,004 BTC, with total holdings of 7,800 BTC.
El Salvador: Increased holdings of 31 BTC in the past 30 days, with total holdings of 6,180.18 BTC.
Long-term Insights: Used to observe our long-term situation; bull market/bear market/structural change/neutral state
Medium-term exploration: Used to analyze what stage we are currently in, how long this stage will last, and what situations may arise.
Short-term Observation: Used to analyze short-term market conditions; as well as the possibility of certain events occurring under certain premises
Long-term Insights
Illiquid Long-term Whales
Total Risk Ratio of BTC Spot Sellers
BTC U.S. Spot ETF Fund Flow
Net Position of Large Inflows and Outflows to Exchanges
(Below is the illiquid long-term whale)
Recently, prices have remained high and have shown a further upward trend in the latest data.
This indicates that the BTC held long-term, which is not easily liquidated (long-term whales), continues to steadily increase, and HODLer confidence remains strong, with relatively small potential selling pressure.
Illiquid long-term whales are rising in sync with moderate price increases, showing healthy support and upward momentum.
(Below is the total risk ratio of BTC spot sellers)
This ratio is currently at a relatively moderate level.
Although the price has risen, it has not yet reached the high-risk area seen at historical bull market peaks.
This indicates that the current market's rise is not dominated by excessive leverage or short-term speculative frenzy, and the pressure to take profits is relatively controllable.
(Below is the BTC U.S. spot ETF fund flow)
After experiencing a period of inflow volatility and even brief outflows, the far right shows that ETF fund net inflows have recovered and maintained a positive trend. Although the daily inflow amount may not reach the initial peak, the continuous net inflow indicates that traditional financial market capital is still actively and steadily allocating BTC.
Prices maintain a strong positive correlation with ETF fund flows, and the recent steady price recovery and continuous net inflow of ETF funds are synchronized.
(Below is the net position of large inflows and outflows to exchanges)
Red Bar (> $10 million):
After the price rises to high levels, although there has been occasional net inflow (possibly representing some large holders' risk management or slight cashing out), there has been no sustained trend of large-scale BTC transfers to exchanges. In recent days, there has even been a slight net outflow or balance state.
Orange Bar ($1-10 million):
Performance is more mixed, but overall has not shown signs of panic selling or large-scale concentrated selling.
Overall, the selling pressure from large addresses is relatively controllable and has not formed sustained selling pressure.
On the contrary, recent balance or slight net outflows suggest reluctance to sell and potential accumulation behavior.
During the price increase process, the pressure from large net inflows to exchanges is not significant, providing a favorable environment for further price support.
(Below is the cost realized by short-term holders)
The short-term speculator cost line (approximately $94,345, estimated based on the chart) continues to rise slowly, indicating that the average holding cost of long-term holders is continuously increasing, which usually occurs in a bull market, as new long-term holders enter at higher prices.
The current BTC price is far above the STH cost line.
BTC price > STH cost > LTH cost: This is a very typical bull market structure.
Price far exceeds STH cost: Indicates that short-term holders are currently in a significant profit state, which is one of their sources of confidence for continued holding.
Combining news analysis with on-chain data
Starting Point: Expectations of easing under macro uncertainty + gradual clarification of regulations (news aspect & Chart 3)
News: The downgrade of the U.S. sovereign credit rating raises concerns about the long-term credit of the dollar, and the market expects this may force the Federal Reserve to adopt more easing monetary policies in the future (Arthur Hayes' 'printing press' argument). At the same time, regulatory progress such as stablecoin legislation brings positive expectations to the market.
Chart 3 (ETF): The continuous net inflow of ETF funds is a direct response to macro expectations and positive regulatory signals, indicating that traditional capital is still entering the market.
Analysis: The macro-level 'bad news' (credit risk) is interpreted by the market as 'good news' for crypto assets (demand for hedging + expectations of easing). The gradual clarity in regulation reduces uncertainty and enhances confidence in capital inflow.
Support: HODLer confidence soaring and supply continuing to tighten (Chart 1 & Chart 5)
Chart 1 (Illiquid Long-term Whales): The continuous increase in illiquid supply indicates that HODLers are not only not selling off in large quantities at the current price level, but are also showing strong reluctance to sell, even accumulating more, resulting in a further reduction in the actual tradable BTC supply in the market.
Chart 5 (Short-term Speculator Cost): The BTC price is far above the average costs of long-term and short-term holders, indicating that the vast majority of market participants are in a profitable state. In particular, the significant profits of long-term holders are an important basis for their firm holding. The STH cost line, as a key bull market support, is currently far behind.
News: Institutions such as MicroStrategy continue to accumulate BTC, confirming the optimism of long-term holders and smart money.
Analysis: Strong HODLing behavior + widespread profitable status + supply shock effect ➔ Minimal market selling pressure, providing extremely strong support for prices.
Verification: The stability of large holder behavior and the controllability of overall market risk (Chart 2 & Chart 4)
Chart 4 (Net Flow of Large Exchanges): Large addresses on exchanges have not shown sustained net inflow (selling) signs; instead, there have been occasional net outflows (accumulating or transferring to cold wallets), indicating that large holders remain optimistic about the market without rushing to cash out.
Chart 2 (Spot Seller Risk Ratio): The spot seller risk ratio is at a moderate level, showing that although market sentiment is positive, it has not reached a crazy or overheated level, and short-term profit-taking pressure is not significant.
Chart 1 (Illiquid Long-term Whales): Also confirms that the market has not yet entered the frenzied stage of a bull market peak (at least not selling).
Analysis: The stability of large holder behavior and the overall controllability of market risk provide a healthy internal environment for further price increases.
Incremental: Expectations of breakthroughs and rotation potential (news aspect)
News: Analysts are generally optimistic about BTC breaking historical highs (Arthur Hayes' targets of $110,000, $150,000-$200,000) and expect that capital will rotate to altcoins afterward (the rebound of the ETH/BTC exchange rate is a signal). Short-term liquidity injection events such as FTX compensation are viewed as potential catalysts.
On-chain correlation: All on-chain indicators currently point to a healthy, poised bull market structure. Once BTC breaks upward, given its supply scarcity and strong buying support, it may quickly attract more attention and funds.
Analysis: On-chain data provides a solid foundation for the optimistic expectations of the news. BTC is 'waiting for a catalyst' to complete the final push, after which the rotation logic of the altcoin season is expected to be activated.
Future Outlook:
Short to Medium-term Outlook:
BTC has a significant probability of continuing to rise and challenge/break historical highs: All on-chain indicators (illiquid supply, LTH/STH costs significantly below the current price, moderate selling risk, continuous ETF inflow, no obvious selling pressure from large holders) support this judgment. Expectations of easing policies and favorable regulations will be key catalysts.
The STH cost line (approximately $94,369) is an important short-term support: Even if a correction occurs, as long as it does not effectively drop below this line, the short-term upward trend is expected to remain unchanged.
The conditions for the altcoin season are maturing: Once BTC effectively breaks through and stabilizes, the capital overflow effect will significantly strengthen. The performance of the ETH/BTC exchange rate will be an important barometer. FTX compensation (if it occurs as expected) may ignite enthusiasm for altcoins.
Focus Variables: Whether macro data (such as inflation and employment) supports easing expectations; the actual implementation of regulatory bills; whether ETF fund inflows can be sustained.
Medium to Long-term Outlook:
The certainty of the bull market's deepening development has increased: The current on-chain structure (especially the STH cost shown in Chart 5 being far below the current price) is a typical healthy characteristic of a mid-cycle bull market, indicating greater upward potential. Non-liquid long-term whales also support this judgment.
The STH cost line (approximately $94,345) is the 'lifeline' of this round of the bull market: As long as the price can continuously stay above it and drive a steady upward movement, the bull market structure remains solid.
Target Price and Risks: Analysts predict that BTC may exceed $200,000 by the end of the year or in 2025, supported by current on-chain data and macro expectations, which is not a fantasy (though the probability is still relatively low). However, as prices continue to rise, it is essential to closely monitor the long-term whales in Chart 1 and the spot seller risk ratio in Chart 2; if they quickly approach or enter historically high-risk areas, it indicates a sharp accumulation of market risks and significantly increased correction pressure.
Long-term Drivers: The actual level of easing in U.S. monetary policy, global demand for hedging against inflation and sovereign credit risk, and the improvement of the crypto regulatory framework will be core factors determining the height and duration of this bull market.
Medium-term exploration
Supply ratio of long-term participants
Liquidity supply volume
Whale net position on exchanges
ETH exchange circulation ratio
Short-term profit structure composite model
(Below is the supply ratio of long-term participants)
The long-term supply chips in the market are gradually compressing the short-term chips available for sale, currently showing substantial absorption.
From the current basic situation, the increase in long-term chips will make market pricing more stable.
Of course, the premise is that short-term supply can be well supplemented.
Overall, the long-term supply has compressed the short-term supply available for sale, indirectly reducing the number of short-term chips in the market.
Factors driving pricing may require some updated supply.
(Below is the liquidity supply volume)
The current liquidity supply volume is still at a healthy level, and the market may also have some new supply support.
The market may currently hover around stable areas in pricing.
(Below is the net position of whale exchanges)
Whales are continuously accumulating their chips. This group has shown no signs of a trend shift towards 'selling off to exchanges'.
Currently, it still appears to be a weak accumulation structure.
(Below is the ETH exchange circulation ratio)
ETH's circulation on centralized exchanges has decreased.
Even with BTC at a relatively high price, the market still tends to seek stability rather than aggressively participating in high-risk projects.
Currently, BTC is mainly accumulated in the market; under this structure, BTC pricing may remain stable, while small coin projects may face downward pressure due to the inability to obtain liquidity from BTC overflow.
(Below is the short-term profit structure composite model)
BTC is currently in a phase of short-term supply profit overflow, which may lead to profit-taking pressure, resulting in upward resistance in the market.
Short-term Observation
Derivatives Risk Coefficient
Options Intent Transaction Ratio
Derivatives Trading Volume
Options Implied Volatility
Profit and Loss Transfer Amount
New Addresses and Active Addresses
Ice Sugar Orange Exchange Net Position
Auntie Exchange Net Position
High-weight Selling Pressure
Global Purchasing Power Status
Stablecoin Exchange Net Position
Off-chain Exchange Data
Derivatives Rating: The risk coefficient is in the red zone, and derivatives risk is high.
(Below is the derivatives risk coefficient)
The risk coefficient has oscillated in the red zone for a week and has not liquidated either shorts or longs; it is currently still in the red zone, and it is expected that the derivatives market will experience significant volatility this week, leading to liquidations for derivatives participants.
(Below is the options intent transaction ratio)
The proportion of put options has slightly increased, and trading volume has increased moderately.
(Below is the derivatives trading volume)
Derivatives trading volume is at the median.
(Below is the implied volatility of options)
Implied volatility of options has only shown low amplitude fluctuations in the short term.
Sentiment State Rating: Neutral
(Below is the amount of profit and loss transfer)
Although the price is gradually rising, the market's positive sentiment (blue line) has always been in a state of 'divergence' with BTC price. This may not affect the price in the short term, but in the medium term, it is not a good phenomenon.
(Below is the number of new addresses and active addresses)
New active addresses are at a low level.
Spot and selling pressure structure rating: BTC and ETH are in a state of continuous large outflows.
(Below is the net position of the Ice Sugar Orange Exchange)
Currently, BTC is experiencing continuous large outflows.
(Below is the net position of E-Tai)
Currently, ETH is experiencing continuous large outflows.
(Below is the high-weight selling pressure)
ETH has significant selling pressure but has eased currently.
Purchasing Power Rating: Global purchasing power has slightly rebounded compared to last week, and stablecoin purchasing power has slightly declined.
(Below is the global purchasing power status)
Global purchasing power has slightly rebounded compared to last week.
(Below is the net position of USDT on exchanges)
Stablecoin purchasing power has slightly declined.
Off-chain transaction data rating: Data website malfunction this week, no off-chain transaction data available.
Weekly Summary:
News Analysis and Summary:
Starting Point: Macro pressure forces policy shift expectations
The U.S. sovereign credit rating has comprehensively lost AAA + continuous debt and deficit pressures + potential economic slowdown signals ➔ The market expects that the Federal Reserve may be forced to adopt more accommodative monetary policies in the future (which may become apparent in the summer or later), although official statements are cautious in the short term.
Conveyed to the crypto market: Dual benefits from hedging attributes and liquidity expectations
Expectations of long-term damage to U.S. dollar credit ➔ Some capital may seek alternative value storage, and BTC's 'digital gold' narrative is gaining attention again.
Future expectations of Federal Reserve easing ➔ Market liquidity improvement expectations ➔ Beneficial for risk assets; the crypto market, as a high beta asset, will benefit.
Positive internal factors overlapping: Clarification of regulations and continuous capital inflow
Progress in legislation such as stablecoin bills + clarification of SEC operational guidelines ➔ Reducing regulatory uncertainty and paving the way for institutional entry.
Continuous capital inflow from BTC/ETH ETFs + institutional/national level accumulation ➔ Real buying support for the market.
Expectations of short-term liquidity injections such as FTX compensation ➔ Further enhancing market confidence.
Market sentiment and capital signals resonate: Expectations of breakthroughs and rotations are heating up.
Analysts are generally bullish + rebound in ETH/BTC exchange rate + high expectations for altcoin season ➔ Market sentiment is positive.
BTC is consolidating near historical highs, waiting for catalysts to complete the breakthrough ➔ Once broken, it may trigger capital rotation to ETH and other altcoins.
Short to Medium-term Outlook:
The core driving force of the 'Summer Offensive' is the resonance of 'easing expectations' and 'clarification of regulations.'
BTC may attempt to break historical highs: Under macro pressure, any dovish remarks or data from the Federal Reserve (such as inflation continuing to be below expectations), as well as positive regulatory progress (such as the passage of the stablecoin bill), could become catalysts for BTC's breakout. The path proposed by Arthur Hayes for BTC to break through $110,000 and surge to $150,000-$200,000 is worth noting.
Altcoin season initiation window: If BTC successfully breaks through and stabilizes, the capital rotation effect is expected to emerge. The ETH/BTC exchange rate is a key observation index. FTX's stablecoin compensation (if it occurs in June) could become one of the direct triggers for the altcoin market to start. Matrixport's expectation of a favorable window period before July is also worth looking forward to.
Risks: The Federal Reserve's unexpectedly hawkish stance in the short term (although the possibility is reduced, it cannot be completely ruled out), unexpected negative news from regulation, or failure of BTC's breakout could all lead to market corrections.
Medium to Long-term Outlook:
The actual direction of U.S. monetary policy is crucial: If the Federal Reserve indeed begins a rate-cutting cycle and resumes balance sheet expansion ('printing press starts'), it will provide continuous macro liquidity support for the crypto market.
The gradual maturity of the regulatory framework: As legislation such as the stablecoin bill is enacted, the U.S. crypto regulatory framework will become clearer, helping to attract larger traditional capital. Central bank explorations like Project Pine into tokenized finance also indicate the direction of future financial system transformation.
The long-term value narrative of BTC and ETH: BTC, as 'digital gold,' may be favored more in the context of exposure to sovereign credit risk. ETH, with its strong ecosystem and deflationary mechanism (if EIP-1559 remains effective), as well as potential ETF narratives (although ETH ETF approval was not directly mentioned this time, there was information in the last round), has the possibility of outperforming other assets (like Arthur Hayes predicting ETH to surpass SOL) in the later stages of the bull market.
The target given under market sentiment: The target price for BTC by the end of the year or in 2025 (around $220,000 to $250,000) provided by analysts indicates an optimistic expectation for the height of this bull market, but this requires ongoing cooperation of macro, regulatory, and internal market factors.
Core Logic:
Macro-level (exposure to U.S. credit risk → expectations of easing policies) + Internal Crypto (clarification of regulations → continuous inflow of capital) ➔ Market confidence strengthens, hedging and speculative demand resonating ➔ BTC waiting for catalysts to break through historical highs ➔ (If successful) Capital rotation, the altcoin season begins, summer market conditions can be expected ➔ The depth of the mid- to long-term bull market depends on the degree of macro liquidity release and the maturity of the regulatory framework.
The current market is at a critical game point, where macro 'bad news' (U.S. credit issues) may be interpreted by the market as 'good news' for the crypto market (forcing easing).
Positive internal factors provide a foundation for this optimistic expectation.
Summer will be an important window to verify these expectations.
On-chain long-term insights:
Macro pressure expectations easing + regulations gradually improving ➔ Continuous injection of ETF funds;
Strengthening market confidence ➔ Continuous tightening of on-chain supply (HODLers reluctant to sell, increase in illiquid long-term whales) ➔ Market participants are generally profitable (prices far above LTH and STH costs);
Minimal selling pressure ➔ Large holder behavior is steady, market risk is controllable ➔ BTC has upward momentum;
Waiting for catalysts to break new highs ➔ (If successful) Triggering the rotation of altcoins;
Summer market conditions are worth looking forward to ➔ The depth of the mid- to long-term bull market depends on macro liquidity and regulatory maturity; the STH cost line is a relatively short-term key reference.
Market Tone:
This round of on-chain data further strengthens the bullish logic of the market, especially the STH cost chart, which clearly shows the healthy structure and strong support of the current bull market.
The market is somewhat ready, just lacking the 'east wind' (key catalysts).
On-chain medium-term exploration:
The increase in long-term chip ratio compresses the short-term selling space, enhancing market absorption capacity, requiring new supply to drive price breakthroughs.
Liquidity levels remain healthy, with new supply continuously supporting, and current prices may continue to oscillate within the range.
Whales continue to accumulate at low levels but have not shown concentrated selling pressure; the market is still in a moderate accumulation phase without forming a trend shift.
The circulation of ETH on exchanges has declined, with funds concentrating on BTC for hedging, while small coins may face liquidity siphoning and downward pressure.
The accumulation of short-term profit positions in BTC creates selling pressure, limiting the price's upward potential due to profit-taking demand.
Market Tone:
Hovering, oscillating
BTC maintains a central oscillation, with structural differentiation intensifying; liquidity risks for small coins should be alert.
On-chain short-term observation:
The risk coefficient is in the red zone, and the derivatives risk is high.
New active addresses are relatively low.
Market sentiment state rating: Neutral.
Net positions of exchanges for BTC and ETH are in a state of continuous large outflows.
Global purchasing power has slightly rebounded compared to last week, with a slight loss in stablecoin purchasing power.
In the short term, the probability of not breaking below $95,000 to $100,000 is 80%;
Market Tone:
Currently, there are few chips choosing to take profits at the current price level, and purchasing power is sufficient to support it. Although the market's positive sentiment and price are in a state of 'divergence', due to the accumulation in the derivatives market, rapid market fluctuations are imminent. This week's expectations are basically consistent with last week, and there is still a possibility of further short squeezes, while the probability of a direct large pullback is relatively low.
Risk Warning:
The above are all market discussions and explorations, which do not have directional opinions on investments; please view with caution and guard against market black swan risks.
This report is provided by the "WTR" Research Institute.
Welcome to follow us!
