Will Altcoin Season Come? Positioning Amidst Volatility, Waiting for Clear Signals

Recently, altcoins have shown signs of differentiated rebounds (such as ETH, SOL, etc., with a 24-hour increase of over 6%), but whether a comprehensive 'Altcoin Season' can form still requires observation of the following factors:

BTC Market Share Decline: Bitcoin's dominance has sharply dropped from 65% to 63.89%, with initial signs of capital flowing into altcoins. The altcoin quarterly index has soared from 23 to 36 within 4 days, approaching the 'Altcoin Season' threshold.

Macroeconomic Liquidity Catalyst: The market expects that the Federal Reserve may cut interest rates by the end of Q3, and liquidity easing will benefit high-risk assets. After the start of the rate cut cycle, altcoins often experience a surge.

Localized Hotspot Drivers: Regulatory tailwinds (such as new cryptocurrency regulations in the U.S.) are driving short-term speculation in public chains (SOL, AVAX) and MEME coins (PEPE), but overall still rely on the emotional transmission after BTC breaks through.

The current rebound is mainly characterized by localized rotation, making a broad increase more challenging. It is recommended to gradually position in leading assets like ETH, SOL, and undervalued public chains, with a focus on the implementation of Federal Reserve policies and whether BTC's dominance can continue to decline.

Operational Reminder: Market sentiment is easily affected by macro disturbances, so avoid chasing highs. If altcoins pull back near the April low, positions can be gradually built. The second half of the year’s rate cut cycle may be the best window.