Future Path Simulation: Two Scenario Assumptions
Scenario One (Optimistic):
Continued Momentum: After breaking through $110,000, short sellers' liquidations drive the price to $120,000, while institutional funds continuously flow in through ETFs, creating a 'self-reinforcing' cycle.
Regulatory Support: After the stablecoin bill is passed, trillions of dollars enter the crypto market through compliant channels, with Bitcoin's market cap challenging that of gold.
Scenario Two (Cautious):
Liquidity Reversal: If the Federal Reserve's policy shifts or geopolitical conflicts escalate, Bitcoin may repeat the pullback seen in December 2024, testing the support at $90,000 - $95,000.
Sentiment Reversal: Once the Greed Index exceeds 75, whale sell-offs may trigger a chain reaction, with short-term declines potentially reaching 20%.
