Short-term forecast (tomorrow and the next week): As of May 19, 2025, Bitcoin's price has exceeded $107,000, needing just a 2.42% increase to reach the historical high of $109,800. Analysts generally believe that if this resistance level is broken, Bitcoin could accelerate upward in the short term to $116,000 or even higher targets. For example, 21Shares points out that Bitcoin is on the verge of a breakout, with institutional capital inflow, supply tightening, and macroeconomic improvement potentially driving it to $138,500.
Technical analysis shows that Bitcoin's daily chart has formed a 'round bottom' pattern. If it breaks the neckline at $106,600, the target price may point to $140,000. Short-term volatility and consolidation risk: Although market sentiment is optimistic, caution is needed for short-term pullback risks. Some analysts believe that the recent surge in ETF capital inflow (net inflow of $2.9 billion in two weeks) could trigger profit-taking, leading to a slight price adjustment to the range of $104,000 to $105,000.
Federal Reserve policy (maintaining interest rates) and the U.S. fiscal deficit issue may suppress market risk appetite, but Bitcoin's appeal as an anti-inflation asset may offset some of the pressure. Outlook for the next month (until mid-June 2025): Key driving factors: Institutional and macro factors: Continued accumulation of spot Bitcoin ETFs (exceeding daily mining output), Trump policies (such as strategic Bitcoin reserve plans) may further boost demand.
Technical support: The Bitcoin balance on exchanges has fallen to a six-year low (2.44 million coins), indicating long-term holders are reluctant to sell, supporting price upward momentum. Price targets and potential resistance: Bullish Scenario: If it breaks the $106,600 resistance level, Bitcoin may enter a 'price discovery phase', with target prices between $140,000 and $150,000.
Neutral Scenario: If macroeconomic uncertainty intensifies (such as inflation rebound or geopolitical conflicts), Bitcoin may fluctuate in the range of $110,000 to $130,000. Pessimistic Scenario: If the Federal Reserve unexpectedly raises interest rates or tightens regulations, it could trigger a pullback to the support level of $90,000 to $100,000, but the long-term outlook remains optimistic for a recovery in the upward trend.
Risks and key variables: Policy and regulation: The policy direction from the U.S. White House cryptocurrency summit and the SEC's regulatory stance on crypto assets may trigger market volatility. Macroeconomic data: Attention should be paid to U.S. inflation data on June 12 (if below 3.3%, it may be favorable for Bitcoin) and the Federal Reserve's interest rate decision.
Market sentiment: Cryptocurrency Fear and Greed Index (current 74, Greed). A shift to 'Extreme Greed' may indicate a short-term top.
Summary
Short-term (1 week): Bitcoin is likely to fluctuate between $105,000 and $116,000, with a potential acceleration in price after breaking the historical high.
Mid-term (January): If fundamentals and technicals resonate, it may hit the $140,000 target; otherwise, caution is needed for pullback risks below $100,000.
Advice: Investors should pay attention to ETF capital flow, on-chain data (such as whale accumulation), and macro events to capture market turning points. (Note: The above analysis is based on public information and does not constitute investment advice. The cryptocurrency market is highly volatile and requires cautious decision-making.)
