Brothers, right now this situation can be summed up in four words - "Main force draws the door". BTC is stuck at the $100,000 mark, fluctuating back and forth. The MACD fast and slow lines are playing the "death cross" above the zero axis, but if you look closely, the dog coin actually has three flaws:

First layer of window paper: Is the MACD's underwater death cross a fake fall?
Now, although the 1-hour MACD red bars are still shrinking, the DIFF line (white line) is pressing down on the DEA line (yellow line) trying to dip. Normally, this would have led to a waterfall drop. But strangely, the price is stuck at 102,360 and refuses to break the MA30 moving average. What does this indicate? The dog coin is using moving averages to weave a web!

Second dragon-slaying sword: Trading volume is playing a sleight of hand.
Today's 1.3 billion trading volume looks lively, but if you look closely at the minute chart - every time there’s a sell-off, it’s accompanied by heavy volume (look at that -170 million net inflow big red bar), while the rebounds are weak and low volume. What’s even more suspicious is that the net inflow on the exchange suddenly dropped by 37%, indicating that the main force is playing "sound east, strike west", making the sell-off look scary, while actually secretly shifting positions.

Now, the sell wall at -0.74% is firmly set at 103,200, clearly telling you: "I've laid a trap here, dare to dismantle it?"

Third smoke bomb: The contraction of the Bollinger Bands hides the nuclear button.
The 4-hour Bollinger Bands narrowing to 5% is the calm before the storm. Coupled with the Fibonacci 38.2% retracement level (101,200) and the triangle formed by MA30, the dog coin is brewing a big move. This morning, Grayscale suddenly increased its holdings by 850 BTC, and with the Federal Reserve set to announce interest rate decisions this afternoon, I bet the main force holds at least three cards: ① Use news to spike contracts ② Fake breakout to wash positions ③ Move positions on-chain and then suddenly pump.

Personal bold opinion:
Don’t be fooled by the price being stuck at $100,000, the real target for the dog coin is to kill the short positions above 103,200 and the long positions below 101,200. This "death cross above the zero axis" in MACD is most likely a trap. Just when retail investors think it's about to break, it’s highly probable that we will see a script of "sharp drop - spike - rebound". Remember these two critical lines: the upper line at 103,200 is the graveyard for the bears, and the lower line at 101,200 is the coffin for the bulls. Whoever breaks first will be the one to suffer.

Before the interest rate decision is announced at 8 PM tonight, those wanting to catch the turning point should keep a close eye on my trading group - if BTC can stabilize above 103,200 and MACD turns red, I will lead you to make 20% on a swing trade; if it breaks down with volume below 101,200, we’ll directly reverse and short to pick up bloody positions. The cryptocurrency world has no kind heart, only a wolf-like mentality.

#BTC走势分析 #BTC $ETH