I have never seen any financial asset that has so many people promoting it vigorously. If you dare to say something negative, a bunch of people will criticize you. Simply put, if there are no new people coming in to take over, the price of the coins won't rise. Moreover, the cryptocurrency circle is the most absurd financial model I have ever seen, with many ways to encourage traders to bring in new customers, such as rebates, encouraging traders to trade frequently, like many activities on the ZhiMa exchange that require you to reach a certain trading volume. Regardless of which exchange it is, they will launch trading activities every week, offering some contract vouchers or rebates. Especially when altcoins are newly launched. However, the corresponding trading fees are very high, around one-tenth of the transaction value. For example, if you short $1000 worth of an altcoin, just one round trip would require a fee of one-tenth of a percent. If you leverage this, it becomes significant. No matter how these people promote the crypto circle, I still view it as a bubble, although I don’t know when it will hit zero.
Additionally, even though many large funds are entering the market now, I still have little faith in it. The maximum ceiling for Bitcoin is $500,000, and I believe it is impossible to reach that in the short term. To put it nicely, it is digital gold; to put it bluntly, it is just a chip for a group of people gambling. If we talk about convenience, stablecoins are much more reliable. A group of early holders of Bitcoin are hoping for government-level forces to come in and take over. Unless the U.S. government goes crazy, there are over 30 million types of virtual currencies; why should Bitcoin be recognized? It is merely a group of vested interests maintaining it through various marketing strategies. BCH and BSV also have a fixed cap of 21 million coins, so why are they considered inferior to Bitcoin?
The third point is that Bitcoin is not anchored to any real asset. Without an anchor, it is not like a company that generates profits or expands on its own; this is similar to gold, which is referred to as a non-productive asset. However, it is evident that this is not as valuable as gold. For instance, when the 4.2 tariffs were introduced, gold surged, while Bitcoin plummeted. Why is that? Just a personal consideration. I think the early adopters were based on blockchain technology, but later it was joined by a group of speculative players with various marketing strategies. It is best for ordinary people not to get involved.
In short, it is fortunate that ordinary people have not touched the cryptocurrency circle; thankfully, the state has banned it. Personally, I have participated in forex, commodities, and stock index futures, and I have rarely seen leverage exceeding 100+, with daily fluctuations of 20-30%. However, in the cryptocurrency circle, you can basically see this every three months. For those without financial knowledge, touching anything with leverage is a sure way to fail. The A-shares market can be quite tricky, but unless you are extremely unlucky, it generally won’t wipe you out completely, while the crypto market often does this. Now Bitcoin has returned to $100,000, and the largest buyer, MSTR, has sold all its shares, along with $421 million in preferred stock. I personally feel that this time it will peak at around $112,000.
Additionally, without needing to check my account, I did indeed open contracts, and I did indeed lose a substantial amount. For those of you who criticize me, I hope you show some restraint. If you love hoarding coins, go ahead; I will not participate in such incomprehensible things again.
Currently, in a bull market, with winds and clouds swirling, we have opportunities to share passwords every day.
