1. Review of this week's market and strategy execution
(1) Overall market performance
This week, the cryptocurrency market showed limited volatility, presenting a consolidation pattern, with both bulls and bears locked in a stalemate. Bitcoin and Ethereum's trends diverged, and news significantly impacted the short-term market, with the overall rhythm revolving around key resistance and support levels.
(2) Bitcoin (BTC) market analysis
At the beginning of the week, boosted by the expectation of tariff cancellation by 'King of Understanding', market sentiment warmed up, and Bitcoin saw a strong bullish rebound, quickly rising to this week's highest point of around 105,800 USD, but it was unable to break through due to strong resistance above. Subsequently, the market entered a phase of consolidation after peaking, with a mid-week dip touching a low of 10,700 USD (Note: there may be a typo here; if it is 107,000 USD, it would make more sense; please verify), finally stopping near this support level and maintaining a range-bound consolidation pattern.
(3) Ethereum (ETH) market analysis
Ethereum performed better than Bitcoin at the beginning of the week, with the price peaking at 2,738 USD, but failed to form an effective breakout. Subsequently, affected by the overall market's volatility, it retraced after peaking, and the gains for the week were entirely given back, with the current price retreating to around 2,500 USD, and both bulls and bears have yet to clarify their direction.
(4) Strategy execution and returns
This week's operations mainly focus on the high-end short strategy in the consolidation range. Although affected by sudden news such as 'King of Understanding' tariffs landing and favorable CPI data, leading to two positions being stopped out, strategies were timely adjusted to follow the market's direction, and overall returns remained objective:
Bitcoin: Accumulated profit of 17,221 points (Note: it is necessary to clarify the unit definition of 'points', such as USD / points);
Ethereum: Accumulated profit1,031 pointsof space.
Summary: The volatile market requires a high level of operational rhythm, necessitating flexible responses to news impacts and timely strategy adjustments.
2. Technical analysis and trend outlook
(1) Weekly level pattern
The market has seen five consecutive weeks of upward movement, forming a strong upward trend. However, historical patterns show that large bullish candles are often followed by doji candles to complete technical corrections. Last week, Bitcoin rose nearly 10,000 points, demonstrating strong upward momentum, but this week, there has been no confirmation of a bullish candle, and the volume-price coordination for correction has yet to be completed. The current weekly candle has formed a high-level doji; if the closing price this week (Note: referring to May 19, 2025, this should be 'next week') cannot recover the key level of 104,000 USD, the market may face the risk of further deep corrections.
(2) Daily level signals
The daily chart shows that Bitcoin has formed a 'deep V' pattern, with technical indicators presenting a dead cross. The original upward channel is gradually being broken, suggesting a strong demand for short-term technical correction. The current price is consolidating at a high level, with a brief balance period in the tug-of-war between bulls and bears. However, as long as the market has not broken the previous high, the bearish trend signals remain dominant.
3. Long-term planning and operational strategies
(1) Bitcoin (BTC)
Long-term short position strategy:
Entry range: 104,000 - 104,500 USD
Target point: Around 97,500 USD
Logical basis: High-level doji + technical indicators' dead cross validating the expectation for a pullback; if it cannot stabilize at the key level of 104,000 USD, the downside space will further open.
(2) Ethereum (ETH)
Short-term focus:
The long-term trend for Aunt is currently unclear; it is recommended to focus on short-term operations, concentrating on intraday volatility and avoiding long-term holding risks.
4. Risk warnings and operational principles
News-driven: Pay attention to macroeconomic data (such as CPI, employment data) and policy trends (such as tariff policies, cryptocurrency regulations), as news may break the existing consolidation pattern.
Position management: Control positions in a volatile market, avoid chasing highs and lows, set appropriate stop-loss and take-profit points, and guard against sudden one-sided fluctuations.
Go with the flow: Understand the trend signals in the market, avoid subjective assumptions, and use the resonance of technical analysis and news as the basis for entry.
