I heard that Binance launched #事件合约 , with odds of 1 to 0.8, and a loss of 1 to 1, which feels quite shocking. Simply put, the 0.2 difference is the platform's profit, meaning that if you play this game, your basic winning rate won't even reach 1:1, so you can't possibly make a profit in the long run. The basic winning rate of the event contract itself is only 0.8, and relying on luck and technology to improve the winning rate can actually be calculated through data. Even if you occasionally win a few trades, once the transaction volume exceeds 100, it will revert to the law of large numbers, making long-term losses almost inevitable.
I have already compiled the winning rate data for Bitcoin event contracts over different periods of 10 minutes, 30 minutes, one hour, and one day. The results show that whether in the short term or long term, there are significant fluctuations in the winning rate, and the overall winning rate is generally below 1:0.4. Even if some short-term strategies seem effective, as the number of trades increases, the probability of loss still dominates. From a data analysis perspective, these types of contracts rely more on the odds set by the platform rather than market trends, making it almost impossible for investors to profit in the medium to long term.