Historically, Bitcoin has been reaching its cycle tops at progressively lower multiples of the 2-year moving average (2Y SMA), signaling a gradual consolidation and reduced volatility.

Initially, the peaks occurred around 2Y SMA ×15.

In 2017, the top hit 2Y SMA ×10.

In the 2021 cycle, it first reached 2Y SMA ×5, then dropped to 2Y SMA ×2.65.

In the most recent cycle, BTC failed to surpass the 2.65× multiple again, showing a narrowing of gains and indicating a more mature and consolidated asset.

Currently, the 2Y SMA ×2.65 level sits at approximately $159,000 — if Bitcoin regains momentum, this will be the major resistance to overcome.

But one thing remains clear: with each new cycle, the potential to stretch gains far beyond the 2-year average is still alive, reinforcing the long-term strength of this market.

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