This morning, Trump stirred things up again, setting new tariffs globally. Fortunately, the market doesn't seem to expect anything too crazy. Especially since U.S. stocks have been closed over the weekend, but $BTC has not. Today is Saturday, which is fine, but the key will be from tomorrow night to Monday daytime. During low liquidity moments, a small amount of chips can cause a crash, and a small amount of funds can pump the market. This event has caused pessimism in market sentiment.
The market is quiet over the weekend. Currently, BTC is slightly affected by a downward trend, and ETH has fallen below 2,500. It's still advisable to watch cautiously; I'm not bearish, just hinting at the current market sentiment trend.
The cryptocurrency market is experiencing significant volatility and emerging trends.
Market overview:
$Bitcoin (BTC) - The current trading price is about $103,466. Bitcoin has been fluctuating between 101000 and 105000 for a while now. After one or two more weeks of this consolidation, we should be able to clear out the leveraged positions of the hesitant investors. This has been the characteristic of this year's market: a period of consolidation followed by a continuation of the rally.
The upper resistance level is around 105800, while the lower support level is between 102000 and 101000.
$Ethereum (ETH) - Ethereum is slightly down, with the current trading price around $2,492. The 4-hour chart for Ethereum shows strong performance, displaying a slow upward trend, with momentum for further gains.
Let me share my feelings:
During the previous weekend when I was playing altcoins, I felt it was a big bull market. Over a few days, ETH, SOL, and other mainstream coins all broke through MA200, and the super altcoin season directly fueled emotions and capital. So I invested in many altcoins and made profits. Overall, Ethereum is still following Bitcoin; there's no independent market. Currently, it looks like the fluctuations may continue for another week while we choose a direction. No matter if Bitcoin goes up or down, mainstream coins are likely to be weaker than Bitcoin, similar to the previous blood-sucking market before last week's comprehensive surge. These small fluctuations can be disregarded for long-term investors.
Regarding mainstream coins:
BNB: It is still following the market's fluctuations and repairs, nothing special.
XRP: After the previous rise, it has basically fallen back. It may follow the market for a small rebound soon.
SOL: Performing quite well, although it has dropped a bit recently. Overall, it has been resilient, and after stabilizing, there may be some upward potential.
DOGE: Also primarily experiencing a pullback. After stabilizing, there may be an opportunity for a small rebound.
AR: Still following the market's repair, not much change.
UNI: Mainly fluctuating, and the trend is slightly weak.
In summary:
The overall market is still fluctuating at high levels and hasn't stabilized. Most mainstream coins have given back their previous gains, and the overall heat of altcoins has decreased significantly—there's a feeling that the 'altcoin season' is coming to an end.
The market currently lacks a clear direction, with signals for rising or falling not being strong. However, overall, there are still slightly more bearish perspectives.
Federal Reserve policy and market liquidity: The core logic of bull-bear transitions.
The current cryptocurrency market is highly unified with the core driving forces of traditional risk assets—the direction of the Federal Reserve's monetary policy. The key contradiction in the Fed's pause on interest rate cuts lies in the inflation uncertainty brought about by Trump's tariff policy: despite the inflation data declining, tariffs may reverse market expectations. Powell chooses to wait and see, avoiding a second wave of inflation due to tariffs after cutting interest rates, which would put him in a passive policy position.
The essential rules of the market:
The underlying support of a bull market has never been narrative consensus but rather the abundance of liquidity.
In a tightening cycle, assets may rise locally, but only a loosening cycle can trigger a comprehensive surge—whether it's on-chain altcoins or high-volatility growth stocks in the U.S. market, the degree of increase is ultimately determined by the tightness of funds.
Conclusion: The interplay between tariffs and monetary policy remains the main theme of the market, and the liquidity inflection point will be key to breaking the current deadlock.
Today's hot coins.
MEME coin KEKIUS surged 96%, with a market cap of 51M. Following Musk changing the X profile picture to the 'Kekius Maximus' themed MEME image, Musk further changed the X nickname to 'Kekius Maximus', previously it was 'Elon Musk'.
These three were all hyped on the day Musk changed his profile picture for the first time.
Additionally,
SUI's current trend is very similar to SOL's surge before its explosion in 2021. SUI has become the undisputed leader of the new public chains in this bull market cycle. If SUI replicates SOL's trend from 2021, then everything is just beginning. Once you experience Sui, you will know how smooth it is. Transactions on the SOL chain often fail, but I haven't encountered any failures on Sui; it's very smooth. Those who experience it will understand, and once you've used it, you can't go back.
How small funds can play and grow on-chain: 1. Find coins with relatively strong certainty, it is recommended to play (leader), and enjoy the main upward phase of the leader.
2. Take advantage of the strong rebound of oversold coins.
3. Allocate 10% of your position for new investments.
