Today marks the fourth anniversary of 519.
At that time, the article mocking crypto began with this sentence as a satire, and now we are standing above $100,000.
The May 19, 2021 incident: 600,000 contracts liquidated, blood flowed like a river.
Overnight, 600,000 contract liquidations occurred, leading to heavy losses for investors. This brutal liquidation serves as a reminder that the cryptocurrency market is high-risk and highly volatile; a small misstep can lead to total loss.
5.19 Monday morning strategy
Bitcoin (BTC) is still in a fluctuating upward trend, with the 100,000 support also validated. From a weekly perspective, Bitcoin closed at $106,500, showing strong performance, which seems to indicate that the probability of rising is greater than a false breakout. However, after the weekly close, it quickly fell below the critical $105,000 support-resistance swap point, a level it had failed to break multiple times before. This brings uncertainty, especially in the current Wall Street-dominated market. We need to observe Bitcoin's performance with volume after the US stock market opens. Without an effective breakthrough yet, it's not advisable to blindly chase it; patience is needed for clear breakout signals.
Bitcoin 106300-106800 range, target 102800.
Auntie 2500-2520 range, target 2380.
Ethereum (ETH) rebounded significantly after a sharp decline. The upward movement encountered resistance leading to a pullback. ETH has recently dropped to just below $2,500. Social sentiment and capital rotation indicate risk appetite, with meme coins and L1 attracting trading volume, but whales are still hoarding BTC.
If ETH quickly recovers $2,500, more upward space is expected — the market needs strong momentum to break resistance and trigger a wider altcoin rebound.
Regarding altcoins:
The sector rebounded strongly, with $VIRTUAL and $GOAT leading the charge.
Altcoin market 4-hour:
- Bullish descending wedge breakout
- RSI breakout
- Bullish MACD crossover
If Bitcoin stays above $104K and ETH stays above $2500, we will see good performance from altcoins again.
These past few days, the market seems a bit strange. On one side, Bitcoin is soaring, about to hit new highs; on the other side, altcoins seem a bit lackluster. According to the 'altcoin season index', it has recently turned downwards, dropping from a rebound to 43 and now down to 24. This means it's currently a 'Bitcoin is the father, altcoins are the grandchildren' rhythm. When this index is high, it indicates that altcoins are rising faster than Bitcoin; when low, it suggests that money is flowing back to Bitcoin. Last December, this index peaked at 87, and it was quite lively, with altcoins flying everywhere; but now, back to reality, traders are starting to be cautious.
However, not all altcoins are performing poorly. In the top 100 projects by market cap over the last 90 days, 24 coins have outperformed BTC, such as FARTCOIN, FORM, IP, VIRTUAL, BRETT... You might not have heard of these coins, but what does it indicate? The market is differentiating; some coins are quietly taking off while others are pretending to be dead.
So don't assume that when BTC rises, altcoins can surge too. Right now, it’s a BTC-dominated market. Altcoins need to see if 'themes + popularity + capital' are keeping up; blindly throwing in money can easily lead to being stuck. Wait for the altcoin index to rise again, such as returning to above 50, which may signal the 'real start of altcoin season.'
At this stage, either position yourself in strong logical new coins (like AI, L2, GameFi types), or just sit back and watch BTC perform, don’t make rash moves. Don’t get itchy hands, don’t rush in.
This wave must have a clear judgment on the projects held, whether they really have competitiveness and potential. Don’t get sentimental just because you’ve been stuck for a long time. I prefer to go for those infrastructure projects that have stood the test of time, such as sol, sui, link, uni, aave, etc. No matter what the narrative is later, their performance won't be too bad.
Additionally, there’s the $VIRTUAL that Old Chen has mentioned many times:
It provides the infrastructure for AI-driven synthetic environments and metaverse deployment. Following the recent adoption of scalability for AI tokens, the Virtuals Protocol has been continuously developing over the past month, becoming one of the best liquidity providers for its native token.
Recently, Virtuals Protocol opened $VIRTUAL staking, and 20% of Virgen points will be distributed proportionally to veVIRTUAL holders, which is a positive catalyst.
Choosing altcoins should be done carefully; lying low and waiting for the right opportunity is also a strategy. When the 'altcoin spring' comes, you might be able to make money just by closing your eyes and buying. For now, one must stay vigilant.
This week, the macro environment is relatively calm, but factors that could trigger a change in trend still exist:
Trump's new tariffs yesterday: If the US stock market drops after opening on Monday, it may lead to a downturn in the crypto market.
Federal Reserve officials' speeches: Monday: Federal Reserve Vice Chair Jefferson speaks; New York Fed President Williams speaks; Wednesday: Fed Bostic hosts a meeting, Harmack and Daly deliver keynote speeches; Friday: New York Fed President Williams delivers a keynote speech at a monetary policy implementation seminar.
On the data front: Thursday: Initial jobless claims in the US for the week ending May 17;
Stay patient, like a surfer waiting for the perfect wave — striking too early can get you washed up on the beach, and striking too late can mean missing the best opportunity. Follow and check the homepage.