Current Bitcoin trend and future predictions (as of May 17, 2025)
Current technical outlook and market sentiment
1. Price dynamics
Bitcoin has shown a 'surge-high-retrace-consolidation' pattern since May 10, currently reported at $103,893 on May 16, with short, medium, and long-term moving averages (MA5/20/50/200) in a bullish arrangement, but MACD shows a high-position death cross and RSI has fallen to 56.0, indicating weakened short-term momentum. Attention should be paid to the breakthrough of key support levels at $101,000-$101,600 and resistance levels at $104,000-$105,000.
On-chain data: Whale addresses took profits near $105,000, net inflow to exchanges rebounded to an average of over 2,000 BTC per day, retail activity is declining, and the market is entering a structural adjustment period.
2. Impact of funds and policies
ETF fund inflow: Cumulative net outflow of $426 million over the past 7 days, but a single-day inflow of $319.5 million on May 14, indicating institutional demand remains but the growth rate is slowing.
Macro factors: Expectations of Federal Reserve interest rate cuts and easing trade policies (e.g., ceasefire between China and the US) support Bitcoin's hedge properties, but CPI data may delay the interest rate cut cycle and suppress short-term liquidity.
Predictions for the next week and month
Short term (one week):
If it holds the support at $101,000, it may continue to test the resistance at $105,000; if it breaks the support, it may pull back to the range of $93,500-$94,200. Be cautious of profit-taking pressure and fluctuations during sensitive policy periods.
Medium term (one month):
After breaking through $105,000, it is expected to challenge the historical high of $109,225; Standard Chartered Bank predicts that if macro conditions are favorable (e.g., accelerated institutional inflow), it could challenge the $120,000 target.
Comparison of potential between SOL, ADA, BNB (as of May 2025)
1. Solana (SOL)
Advantages: High throughput ecosystem supports DeFi and NFTs, recent TVL growth, technical support at $178 in the short term, if it breaks through the resistance at $200, it may challenge $228.
Risk: Dropped 1.5% to $171.61 on May 15, lagging in market fund rotation, reliance on technical breakthroughs for validation.
2. Cardano (ADA)
Disadvantages: Plummeted due to centralization controversies (7.25% drop in two days), may face 20%-25% pullback pressure in the long term, current price around $0.77, if it drops below $0.75, it may further decline.
3. Binance Coin (BNB)
Advantages: Robust ecosystem (trading, Launchpad, etc.), rose 0.4% against the trend to above $650 on May 15, technical bullish target of $820, low volatility (5.18%).
Catalyst: Coinbase's acquisition of Deribit to expand the derivatives market may enhance BNB liquidity demand.
Comprehensive ranking: BNB > SOL > ADA
BNB has advantages due to low risk and ecosystem support; SOL needs to break technical resistance; ADA is dragged down by centralization issues, avoid in the short term.
Mainstream coin recommendations and operational strategies
Recommended coins
1. Ethereum (ETH)
Logic: Shanghai upgrade enhances liquidity, staking volume exceeds 18 million coins, institutional ETF single-day inflow of $428.5 million, technical outlook bullish to $15,000 (May 2025 prediction).
Buying opportunity: Pullback to the support range of $2,000-$2,200.
Target: Short term $2,500, medium to long term $15,000.
2. Bitcoin (BTC)
Logic: Institutional holdings account for 35%, on-chain long-term holders' cost is below $60,000, providing bottom support, macro hedge properties are reinforced.
Buying opportunity: Support range of $93,500-$94,200 or chase long after breaking $105,000.
Target: Short term $108,000, end of year $120,000.
Sell signal
ETH: Weekly drop below $1,800 or RSI overbought (>80).
BTC: Break below $85,000 medium-term support or negative policies (e.g., tightening regulations).
Summary and risk warning
Bitcoin: Short-term high-level consolidation, focus on breaking $105,000 and ETF fund inflows; medium to long term supported by halving cycles and institutional demand.
Altcoins: Prioritize BNB (stability) and ETH (technical upgrades), observe SOL for breakthroughs, ADA has higher short-term risks.
Operational suggestion: Build positions in batches, avoid high leverage, pay attention to the US CPI data and policy window period in late May.