Last night, the U.S. April PPI year-on-year was released: previous value 2.7%, expected 2.5%, published value 2.4%. The U.S. April PPI month-on-month previous value 0%, expected 0.2%, published value -0.5%, creating the largest drop since April 2020.
Powell's latest speech
Powell's speech last night focused on adjusting the monetary policy framework, hinting at a return to traditional inflation targeting and adopting a more flexible attitude towards the job market, maintaining high interest rates in the short term to observe inflation trends. The market reaction was mild but slightly negative, with U.S. stocks falling and bond yields rising.
Currently, the probability of a 25-point rate cut in July has slightly risen to 35.9%.
$BTC's consolidation range is very clear.
The upper pressure is at 105000, the lower support is at 100800. If resistance is encountered above, short; if support is encountered below, long, until a certain side breaks the balance. This kind of trend will have to wait for news to break the situation. Before that, try to engage in as many short-term trades as possible.
Ethereum has a trend of catching up within the day.
Overall, ETH is currently starting to oscillate slightly up and down like BTC. ETH previously surged due to upgrades, and now that the news has passed, the trend has also become calmer.
Currently, the 4-hour Fibonacci indicates that the short-term pressure level is around 2660-2680, and the short-term support level is around 2480-2460.
Continue to pull back to the 2460 level at the current price and consolidate for a while before pushing up to the 2800-3000 level.
This performance is thanks to Ethereum's solid technical foundation, including the upcoming completion of the 2.0 upgrade and the continued prosperity of the DeFi and NFT ecosystems, reflecting the market's recognition of its long-term value. In contrast, the weak performance of XRP and SHIB reveals the market's cautious attitude towards currencies lacking fundamental support.
Currently, all we can do is wait, wait for the real pullback to manifest, observe the strength, and then develop a short-term strategy based on the market situation at that time; until breaking 100,000, the bears will still be in a weak position.
The market is generally weak, with significant pullbacks in popular sectors. Some altcoins are rising against the trend, but the overall market is still focused on pullbacks.
Hot topics in the crypto market:
1. On-chain market pullback, enthusiasm has decreased significantly compared to the previous days, the FDV of #Launchcoin has also dropped, hovering around 200 million USD.
3. On-chain meme performance is still acceptable, such as $house #useless, on-chain memes can be as abstract as possible.
4. The game token of Adventure Island that caught everyone's attention yesterday, $nxpc @MaplestoryU, finally went live, peaking around 3.8 USD, with its FDV directly reaching about 3.8 billion USD, but with the release of airdrops, it once plunged to around 2.48. After the airdrops are mostly released, this game is expected to be a key focus for studios, and the subsequent performance is not expected to be too bad, so keep an eye on it; many gold farming studios will soon rush to enter Adventure Island.
5. CEX altcoins generally retraced; yesterday moodeng led the decline, triggering a collective pullback among altcoins, with $pnut, $wif, and others dropping significantly. The follow-up will depend on Bitcoin's performance; as long as it breaks through ATH, market confidence will be restored.
6. Coinbase faced a double blow of 'SEC investigation' + 'user data theft', with a stock price drop of 7.2%.
7. FTX's main repayment will begin on May 30, with total allocated funds exceeding 5 billion USD. By the end of the month, over 5 billion USD of liquidity will enter the market.
This bull market is mainly led by Bitcoin, and due to the lack of innovative application narratives in this cycle, the enthusiasm of retail investors is not as high as in the previous bull market.
When Bitcoin is at its ATH, the market will regain confidence, and then altcoins will soar again. So during this stage, everyone should not be afraid; when prices drop, go and ambush the altcoins that will rebound the most. I think it will bear fruit soon, just in the second half of the year.
Recently, Bitcoin whales have been continuously buying Bitcoin, and the number of holding addresses has reached a new high. Both institutions and retail investors are buying on the rise rather than on the decline. If Bitcoin reaches a new all-time high, I believe it will attract more funds into the market.
In the future market, keep a close eye on three clues:
June FOMC meeting of the Federal Reserve
Interest rate cuts may trigger liquidity-driven increases, if maintained firmly or suppress the market.
SEC's attitude towards Ethereum ETF staking function
Approved or opened a new market worth hundreds of billions.
Progress on stablecoin and structural market legislation
Driving explosive growth in on-chain assets.
Overall, the crypto market is unlikely to be very calm in the coming months, with tariffs, the Fed, and regulatory factors stirring things up, so we need to be cautious. However, regulation is improving, institutions are coming in, and the market still has hope to move upwards. We need to be a bit patient and wait for the conditions of the bull market to mature.
Today's Golden Dog: $B
Last night Binance released content about USD1, and FOUR also supports creating memecoins with USD1. I was wondering if there are significant pools emerging around USD1, and then I saw this, currently valued at 20M.
Last night the official Twitter released an addition of the USD1 pool, I feel this narrative is still quite good, combined with Binance pushing USD1, it seems possible to generate some alpha.
ETH Twin Stars: $RATO $FROGGER
The two things that Lao Chen has mentioned the most in these days are these two; those who kept up should have profited.
Currently, the biggest point of contention is:
Is the main character in Matt's new book a mouse called RATO? If so, this is definitely a 100M target, and many Ethereum whales will rush in. Everything awaits the 24th; FROGGER mainly has a good CTO community.
ETH Twin Stars: $RATO $FROGGER
However, even if the new book is not called a mouse, I believe it cannot stop the return of the classic IP meme of the Ethereum system.
Mouse RATO + Little Frog FROGGER, this combination can be considered a good risk hedging strategy. Ethereum whales are thirsty for funds, especially large funds seeking relative certainty. They have been waiting and watching for so long...
Any Ethereum meme that stands firm at 100M has the potential to impact 1B, that's the logic. Stay tuned, check the homepage.
