Last Warning: ETH technical indicators have issued a death signal, is it time to run or to buy the dip?
Market Overview:
ETH experienced a significant pullback on May 15, with the price quickly falling from $2646 to $2565, a 24-hour decline of 3.2%. Current market sentiment is cautious, and investors are closely watching the defense of the key support level at $2550.
Technical Analysis:
Short-term Indicators:
5-minute candlestick shows a "headless guillotine" pattern
MACD indicator shows a bearish crossover
4-hour RSI is at 38.7, approaching the oversold zone
Key Level Analysis:
Support Range: $2550-2580 (including $420 million stop-loss orders)
Resistance Level: $2600 whole number
Strength Weakness Divide: ETH/BTC exchange rate 0.024
On-Chain Data:
Whale address transferred 28,000 ETH to Binance within 3 hours
Perpetual contract funding rate dropped to -0.023%
Grayscale ETHE trust premium narrowed to 12%
Major Event Alert (Beijing Time):
▶ 20:30 US April PPI Data
Expectation: Monthly rate 0.3%
Impact: If exceeds expectations, may strengthen hawkish sentiment
▶ Next Day 02:00 Federal Reserve Meeting Minutes
Focus: Statements related to "sticky inflation"
Historical Impact: Last December's similar statements led to a 9% drop
▶ SEC Ethereum ETF Final Decision
Approval Probability: 35% (Bloomberg analysts' expectation)
Market Reaction: Be cautious of "buy the rumor, sell the news" trend
Operational Strategy:
[Short-Term Trading]
Break above 2600: Light long position, target 2650, stop loss 2580
Break below 2550: Wait and see or light short position, target 2500, stop loss 2580
[Medium to Long-Term Layout]
Range 2450-2500: Build positions in batches (suggested 3-5 batches)
If ETF approved: Consider partial profit-taking (30-50% position)
If ETF delayed: Wait for buying opportunity at 2300-2400
I am @Crypto 反卷队长 , skilled in short to medium-term contracts and medium to long-term spot layouts, regularly sharing investment tips, detailed strategy teaching points @Come!
