Tonight is another day dominated by data-driven market trends. Some always think economic data is insignificant, but reality has repeatedly proven otherwise—today's market is like a startled bird, with each data point capable of causing waves.
Looking back to before the CPI release on the 13th, the market was in a continuous decline, and shorts were celebrating with champagne prematurely. As a result, after the data met expectations, the market immediately staged a comeback.
Today's PPI data has pressed the pause button for the market, with both bulls and bears holding their breath for the next signal.
I personally believe that $BTC is about to enter a period of fluctuation.
At present, the market seems to lack any news catalysts, making it difficult to break through the 110,000 barrier. Many early buyers are likely to sell at this price and wait for a lower price to re-enter.
From the daily liquidation map, it seems that shorts outweigh longs. In the short term, it’s unclear how the market will move; it may first test the 102500-100800 level before rebounding.
The specific market trend is very tense. As long as the market does not break the 100,000 level, it can focus on long positions. If it breaks below 100,000, an M-top pattern will form on the 4-hour chart.
The trading sentiment in the crypto market is continuously declining, and the fluctuation will last at least until Friday's macro data is released, potentially extending into next week...
Let's get straight to the conclusion: bullish or bearish?
In the short term, there may still be a small level of liquidation around 106600+, so it can be bullish in the short term, but from a long-term perspective and the direction of a new trend, it still remains unclear.
$ETH To truly return as a king, it needs to look at US capital and the narrative.
After holding the 2550 level, the market rebounded strongly, and bulls are expected to break through the 2825-2850 resistance zone, aiming for 3000!
Reference:
▪️ Bitcoin: around 102000-102500, targeting 104500-105000
▪️ Auntie: around 2545-2580, targeting 2650-2700.
After a short-term adjustment in Bitcoin, accompanied by a new round of Federal Reserve interest rate cut expectations, the real trend will begin. The second half of the year is destined to be exciting. The main narrative of this bull market is still about memes and AI, so everyone should hold on to the chips acquired at lower levels.
If the on-chain P doesn't win, then don't pursue it; wait for the second opportunity. After being selected by the market, wait for a major pullback and then enter; this is also a strategy. Different people have different personalities, so one should think about their preferred approach.
How do you see the market moving forward?
Currently, from the end of April until now, although Trump has made some shifts in statements, such as pausing tariffs and re-discussing trade agreements, the total capital inflow from his stimulus is limited, bringing only a recovery of several billion dollars, and market sentiment has not continued to warm. Additionally, there are still many uncertainties ahead, including:
• There are still questions about whether the Federal Reserve will initiate interest rate cuts at the June 19 meeting; CME rate futures show that the probability of 'no rate cut in June' exceeds 90%;
• If the interest rate cut is delayed, it may take time for the net holdings of stablecoins to increase significantly again;
• The market currently has an 'expectation gap', with no sufficient 'new stories' to support accelerated capital inflow.
Thus, although the current price of $BTC is close to its historical high, it is still necessary to remain rational and objective based on capital inflows and market sentiment. Further upward movement in the market relies on the continuous inflow of real capital.
The market is currently mainly driven by favorable events such as tariff easing and ceasefire negotiations, but liquidity remains a bottleneck. Although tariff expectations are not as frightening, the tax rate is more than double that of 2024. If reciprocal tariffs are restored in early July, the market may struggle. The Federal Reserve is currently mainly focused on the economy and inflation, and will not easily cut interest rates before the formal implementation of tariff policies. As long as Trump doesn't create any surprises, there shouldn't be major risks in the short term. However, it is important to note that long-term holders selling coins and insufficient liquidity may lead to short-term pullback demand. If a significant pullback occurs, it would be a golden opportunity for staggered bottom-fishing.
Not afraid of pullbacks, still bullish.
The five warriors of this rebound: Pepe, SUI, Pengu, Virtual, Bonk.
Leading in the AI track: VIRTUAL. Among AI + Crypto projects, I think it is the strongest.
Lending sector: the more stable ones are AAVE and COMP, while others include JTO and XVS.
For staking, you can take a look at: ETHFI, SSV, LD.
The above have sustainability and good fundamentals.
Additionally, on the 10th, Lao Chen reminded to ambush Rato, which also doubled; one can double their principal and prepare to ambush the next one.
