【BTC Capital Concentration Data Observation and Trading Logic】
As of May 11, BTC capital concentration has dropped from a historical high of 15.5% to 11.2%. Reviewing data from the past two years, when concentration hits a high point, the market trend shows an alternating pattern of "drop-rise-rise-drop-drop-rise-rise-drop". The previously hypothesized "arithmetic sequence" has yet to be validated, and the 9th directional choice has drawn attention.
Key Conclusions:
• A single concentration indicator is not a bullish or bearish signal, but when high levels are accompanied by rising volatility, it often breeds trading opportunities;
• Rather than betting on price movements, focus on volatility strategies (such as capturing range breaks, options volatility arbitrage, etc.), as historical data shows a better win rate in this direction.
The market never follows a script; breaking free from the "either bullish or bearish" mindset may reveal clearer patterns. Data serves as a mirror, reflecting not only the past but also correcting and optimizing trading logic.