- As of May 13, 2025, Bitcoin's price fluctuated around $102,700, slightly down from the week's high of $105,747. This is the highest price since January, indicating a strong recovery after a correction period in Q1.
- However, after peaking, BTC corrected to $101,295, reflecting investors' profit-taking sentiment and pressure from macro factors such as the unexpected statement from former President Trump.
📊 Technical analysis
• Strong support: $100,000 – an important psychological level. If broken, it may drop to the $92,000 area.
• Nearest resistance: $107,000 – a price range that has been rejected multiple times.
• RSI indicator: Above 70, indicating that the market is in an overbought state, which may lead to short-term corrections.
• Technical model: BTC has filled the CME Futures gap, which is often a signal for upcoming volatility.
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🔍 On-chain analysis & capital flow
• ETF capital flow: BlackRock reported an inflow of 5.3 trillion IDR (~$350 million) into Bitcoin ETFs, indicating strong interest from institutional investors.
• MVRV ratio: The company Strategy holds BTC with an unrealized profit of about 50%, indicating that the market is still in the growth zone.
• Miner reserves: Decreased to the lowest level in years (~1.8 million BTC), indicating that miners are selling rather than accumulating.
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🌐 Macro factors & market sentiment
• Fear & Greed Index: Reached 70 (Greed), reflecting optimistic sentiment but also warning of short-term correction potential.
• US-China trade deal: The reduction of tariffs from 145% to 30% over 90 days has boosted market sentiment, supporting BTC's upward trend.
• Market seasonality: “Sell in May and go away” – historical trends show that May is often a time for corrections, requiring close monitoring.
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🔮 Short-term forecast
• Bullish scenario: If it holds above $100,000 and surpasses $107,000, BTC may target $114,000 – $120,000 in May.
• Correction scenario: If it loses the $100,000 mark, the possibility of a drop to the support level of $92,000 is high.
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✅ Conclusion
In May 2025, Bitcoin showed impressive recovery, surpassing $100,000 and attracting capital inflow from institutional investors. However, technical and macro factors warn of the potential for short-term corrections. Investors should be cautious, closely monitor key support and resistance levels, and consider appropriate risk management strategies.
