The sentiment has been fully consumed
The U.S. has reduced the average tariff on Chinese goods from 145% to 30%, while China has simultaneously reduced tariffs on U.S. goods from 125% to 10%, with both sides suspending some tariff increases for 90 days.
- Market risk appetite has significantly increased, S&P 500 futures soared 2.8%, gold and other safe-haven assets are under pressure, Bitcoin, as 'digital gold', has lagged in short-term performance but shows improved long-term liquidity expectations.
3. Ethereum Pullback Pressure: Ethereum peaked at $2,620 and retraced to around $2,500; technical indicators show weakening RSI and MACD momentum, with short-term support at $2,450; if it breaks below, it may accelerate the pullback.
2. Analysis of Driving Factors: Policy, Technology, and Capital Resonance
1. Dual Impact of the Sino-U.S. Trade Truce:
- Positive Aspects: Tariff reductions relieve global supply chain pressures, lower corporate costs, and boost risk asset valuations; expectations of regulatory easing in the crypto industry attract traditional capital.
- Potential Risk: Market sentiment may be ahead of the policy benefits, if subsequent negotiation details do not meet expectations, it may trigger a sell-off.
2. Key Technical Signals:
- Bitcoin: Weekly level 'Bullish Flag' breakout confirmed, targeting $150,000; however, daily RSI reached 75 (overbought territory), caution is needed for a technical pullback.
- Ethereum: The 4-hour chart forms a descending channel; if it breaks below the support at $2,450, it may drop to $2,180 (Fibonacci 0.382 retracement level).
3. Capital Trends:
- Bitcoin spot ETF had a net inflow of $3.3 billion this week, BlackRock's IBIT continues to accumulate, and exchange reserves have decreased to 13% (a new low since 2018), with long-term holders' lockup ratio reaching 63%.
- Ethereum whale addresses' accumulation slows down, staking rate rises to 28%, but lower on-chain Gas fees show a decrease in short-term speculative enthusiasm.
3. Strategy and Risk Warning for the Next 24 Hours
1. Operation Suggestions:
- Bitcoin: If it stabilizes above $103,000, a small long position can be tried, with a target of $105,000-$107,000; if it drops below $100,000, stop-loss and wait for the validity of the $97,800 support.
- Ethereum: Stabilizing around $2,420-$2,450 can set up long positions, targeting $2,600; if it drops below $2,400, be wary of accelerated pullback risks.
2. Sector Opportunities:
- RWA and Anti-Inflation Targets: MKR and PAXG benefit from policy uncertainties;
- Layer2 Ecosystem: Tokens like OP and ARB benefit from increased on-chain activities after Ethereum's upgrade.
3. Risk Warning:
- Data Shock: Today's 20:30 release of U.S. CPI data; if inflation exceeds expectations or reinforces the Fed's hawkish stance, it will suppress risk assets.
- Leverage Liquidation Pressure: High leverage positions account for over 70%, extreme volatility may trigger a chain liquidation.
4. Key Events to Watch Today
- 20:30: U.S. April CPI data;
- On-Chain Dynamics: Whale accumulation and changes in exchange reserves;
- Policy Tracking: Follow-up on the implementation of Sino-U.S. tariff details and statements from Federal Reserve officials.
