I. Market news: Severe fluctuations in policy and prices**
1. Bitcoin surge and retreat: Bitcoin reached a high of $105,000 yesterday, setting a new high for 2025, but quickly retreated to around $103,000, fluctuating with a 24-hour amplitude of 4.5%, and the total liquidation amount exceeded $1.5 billion (with long positions accounting for 68%).
2. Ethereum major fluctuation: Ethereum was boosted by increased on-chain activity after the Pectra upgrade, briefly breaking through $2,600, but then plummeted below $2,500, with a 24-hour drop exceeding 5%, and the liquidation amount in the derivatives market reached $438 million (with shorts dominating).
3. Progress of China-US negotiations: High-level economic and trade talks between China and the US have begun in Geneva, and the market is looking for signals of tariff relaxation, but the Trump administration's threat of imposing a 125% tariff on Chinese goods remains unresolved, causing fluctuations in safe-haven sentiment.
II. Technical analysis: Key levels and capital movement
1. Bitcoin key levels:
- Support levels: $100,000 (psychological level), $97,800 (turning support after breakout); if it falls below, it may trigger programmed selling.
- Resistance level: $105,000 (short-term high), $109,350 (historical resistance zone), a breakout requires volume support.
- Technical signals: RSI nearing 70 (overbought range), MACD histogram volume decreasing, indicating weakening upward momentum.
2. Ethereum long and short game:
- **Support levels**: $2,400 (4-hour Bollinger band middle track), $2,200 (psychological level);
- Resistance levels: $2,600 (previous high), $2,800 (technical selling pressure zone);
- Upgrade effect: After the Pectra upgrade, on-chain Gas fees dropped below $0.5, but ETF capital outflows and institutional preferences are diverging (BTC ETF continues to attract capital, ETH ETF is underperforming).
3. Capital movement: Bitcoin whale addresses have increased their holdings by over 20,000 BTC in the past week, the exchange inventory ratio has dropped to 13% (a new low since 2018), and the long-term holder lock-up ratio has reached 63%, indicating enhanced control by major players.
III. Driving factors analysis: Dual game of policy and market*
1. China-US tariff negotiations: If negotiations signal a relaxation of tariffs, it may boost risk asset preferences, benefiting sectors like consumer electronics and semiconductors; if they break down, safe-haven assets like gold and military stocks may be favored.
2. Federal Reserve policy expectations: The market bets that the probability of interest rate cuts in 2025 has risen to 70%, the dollar index has fallen to 98.5, but Powell emphasized that "inflation is still above target," which may suppress risk preferences in the short term.
3. Geopolitical risks: Expectations of the Russia-Ukraine negotiations resuming and the India-Pakistan ceasefire agreement reduce short-term safe-haven demand, but the Middle East situation and supply chain disruptions still need vigilance.
IV. Operation suggestions and risk warnings
1. Short-term strategy:
- Bitcoin: If it holds above $103,000, a light long position can be tested, targeting $105,000-$107,000; if it falls below $100,000, then stop loss and wait.
- Ethereum: If the support at $2,400 holds, a long position can be established, targeting $2,600; if it falls below $2,200, be wary of accelerated pullbacks.
Event-driven: If the China-US negotiations are favorable, pay attention to the valuation recovery of consumer electronics (Apple supply chain) and semiconductor equipment (SMIC).
2. Risk warning:
- High leverage liquidation: The total open contract positions across the network reached $24 billion, extreme volatility may trigger a chain liquidation;
- Policy volatility: After the implementation of Trump's tariff details, supply chain cost pressures may suppress market sentiment.
$BTC $ETH $BNB
