The recent US-China trade war has shown significant signs of easing. The joint statement from the Geneva talks on May 12, 2025, indicates that both sides will mutually reduce tariffs by 91%, with the average tariff rate imposed by the US on China falling from 145% to around 30%, while China simultaneously adjusts its countermeasures. This breakthrough is attributed to the economic pressures faced by both parties: the US is experiencing GDP contraction, supply chain disruptions, and high inflation, while China is enhancing its resilience through multilateral cooperation such as RCEP. The market has reacted positively to this, with global stock markets, exchange rates, and commodity prices rising.

However, the easing has a phased characteristic. The US retains a baseline tariff of 10% and technology restrictions, while China maintains non-tariff countermeasures such as those on rare earths. Professor Zhang Jiadong from Fudan University points out that although tariffs have been reduced, it is difficult to return to the low tariff rates under the WTO framework, and the future may present a model of "coexistence of struggle and negotiation." Core disagreements such as technology transfer and industrial policy remain unresolved, and discussions after the 90-day buffer period will determine the direction of relations. This agreement injects certainty into the global economy, but the focus of long-term competition has shifted to strategic areas such as artificial intelligence and quantum computing. #贸易战缓和