Have you noticed that when the Federal Reserve does not cut interest rates, the bearish sentiment in the market is high, and the market suddenly turns bullish? As for the remarks from the Trump cabinet meeting, that is just a coincidence, aimed at exploding short positions. If the capital rises too much, they want to cash out, so there must be favorable information to attract bulls into the market.
This is why, at around 1 AM on May 8th, knowing that a rate cut was impossible and the market was bearish, I entered a short position based on the 'Short Probe Method' pattern at 97200. After dropping to 76800, I set a stop loss at 97100. The market fell to 95700 and began to fluctuate, and I chose to continue to hold a bearish outlook. I was worried that the short position would take up too much of the market, leading to a strong capital push and a trend reversal. But that's how contracts work, either you stay up late to monitor the market, take a 1400-point swing to cash out, or hold on to profits and continue to probe for declines.
However, the trend reversal hit the stop loss. After preserving capital, I knew this market only awaited a scenario where the long positions were significantly higher and there were many short positions to explode, and it could crash at any moment. I missed out on all my spot trades at 970000-104200. I won’t gamble; I know it could crash at any time. In my previous works, I always mentioned that I would rather miss out on spot trades than make a wrong entry. The 'Short Probe Method' in contracts will either make a profit or preserve capital, making it impossible for me to be trapped.
If the Federal Reserve's interest rate decision is to cut rates, I can assure you that the market will not immediately rise and enter a bullish trend. Instead, it will likely rise to lure in bulls before crashing. The current market is no longer about whether it is bullish or bearish; as long as one side holds a significant portion, a harvest is inevitable, and retail investors won’t be given any room to think. This is the terrifying aspect of ETFs and spot trading through BlackRock.
