BTC Today's Market Analysis:
Looking back at the rising market from last week, on May 8th, the Federal Reserve chose not to cut interest rates, leading the market to be bearish. However, subsequent comments from Trump caused a surge in the market, primarily due to the high proportion of bears caused by the decision not to cut rates, prompting capital to push the market up. The price surged from around 92,800 to nearly 104,000 points. We know that the Federal Reserve's interest rate decision will be made on June 18, and the market has already risen by over 11,000 points. Even in a bull market, there will be a sharp drop or a correction process, and we have not yet entered a bull market; we are all waiting for capital to sell off.
The weekly Bollinger Bands upper resistance has been under pressure, with bulls releasing energy for six consecutive days; this is still not a bull market. Capital has chosen to let the bulls take over while they sell off at lower levels to maximize profit margins. Moreover, after this wave of strong liquidation of bears, the market has entered a low tide period, which will inevitably require a drop to lure people in; the market needs fuel.
From the indicators, 102,300 is a strong support level, and it was also the right pillar of last week's chart. Only breaking this level will present an opportunity to see 100,000 points. If it does not break, the market still has room to rise at this position. Currently, the 4-hour Bollinger Bands are flat, and the lower band is near 102,300.
As for whether the market will continue to rise and break 106,000, rising from around 104,000 to 105,800, an 1,800-point rise is not sufficient to trigger a major short. It is more about luring bulls to take over while the main players sell off.
Summary: Continue to observe the spot market; it is better to miss out than to make a mistake. As for contracts, the "Short Probe Method" is essential; knowing the "Short Probe Method" gives you the ability to choose how to operate in the market instead of blindly entering when the market moves.
