Historic breakthrough! The China-U.S. economic and trade negotiations have achieved substantial progress, and the fundamentals of the roaring bull market are beginning to show!

Just now, a piece of news capable of shaking the global economic landscape has arrived: China and the U.S. have completed a significant face-to-face consultation in picturesque Geneva regarding long-standing tariff differences. This is not only the first high-level direct dialogue between the two countries since Trump's inauguration but also a key turning point for the direction of the global economy. Both sides stated that the negotiations were friendly and in-depth, reaching a consensus of profound significance, and a joint statement will be released later today to announce this significant achievement to the world.

1. Core negotiation topics and positions: Uphold the bottom line, seek win-win outcomes

In this globally watched negotiation, both sides' positions and demands became the focus. China upheld several bottom lines, demonstrating firm resolve and principles:

1. Tariff issues: China demands the U.S. to cancel all new tariffs and firmly opposes linking tariff issues with political conditions, especially using the fentanyl issue as a bargaining chip for tariff reductions. China believes that tariff issues should be resolved based on fairness, justice, and equality, rather than becoming tools for political pressure.

2. Industrial policy: On rare earth and key mineral export policies, China emphasizes sovereignty and will not allow external forces to interfere. At the same time, maintaining industrial subsidies, technological sovereignty, and development in key areas are the cornerstones of China's sustainable economic development and a guarantee of its important position in the global industrial chain.

3. Dispute resolution mechanism: China has always insisted on resolving trade disputes based on the World Trade Organization (WTO), opposing the U.S. unilateral mechanisms. The WTO, as the creator and maintainer of global trade rules, provides guarantees for fair and orderly international trade, while unilateral mechanisms only disrupt the global trade order and trigger more instability.

4. Financial policy: The renminbi exchange rate policy and the pace of financial opening are emphasized by China to be under its own control. This not only relates to the stability of the Chinese financial market but also affects the balance of the global financial landscape.

The U.S. position in the negotiations is also of great concern:

1. Tariff adjustments: The U.S. proposed reducing tariffs from 145% to 80%, and subsequently there were reports that it might drop to an initial 34%, but at the same time requiring China to cooperate on trade balance and fentanyl issues. This practice of using tariff adjustments as leverage to gain benefits in other areas undoubtedly increases the complexity of the negotiations.

2. Trade balance: The U.S. emphasizes a policy of 'reciprocal tariffs', attempting to force China to reduce trade deficits through high tariffs. However, trade deficits are a complex economic issue, and relying solely on tariff measures is unlikely to fundamentally resolve the problem, and may instead trigger a vicious cycle of trade wars.

3. Pressure strategy: The U.S. was unwilling to cancel tariffs before the negotiations, attempting to maintain this pressure posture to gain more advantages during the negotiations. However, this strategy may also lead to a stalemate in negotiations, increasing the negotiation costs and uncertainty for both sides.

2. Negotiation progress: Tense gamesmanship, gradually easing

On the first day of talks (May 10), both sides engaged in more than 10 hours of closed-door consultations. The negotiation atmosphere was tense, with every topic undergoing intense discussion and gamesmanship, as both sides sought the best solution without compromising core interests. Although specific progress has not been made public, this lengthy closed-door meeting undoubtedly demonstrated both sides' commitment to the importance of these negotiations and their determination to resolve issues.

The next day (May 11), negotiations continued. Trump proposed to reduce tariffs to 80% on the 'Truth' platform, and then there were media reports that it might drop to 34%, but there was no immediate response from China. Under the chairmanship of the Swiss ambassador to the United Nations, both sides continued the dialogue, and the atmosphere was somewhat eased compared to the first day. This shift in atmosphere indicates that negotiations are moving in a positive direction, with both sides gradually lowering their hardline stances and seeking more consensus and cooperation space.

3. Negotiation outcomes: Substantial progress, opening a new chapter

On May 12, this is destined to be a historic day. Both sides announced that the negotiations had achieved 'substantial progress' and agreed to establish a long-term trade consultation mechanism led by China's He Feng and the U.S.'s Basant. The establishment of this mechanism provides a stable communication platform for future economic and trade cooperation between China and the U.S., helping to continuously resolve the differences between the two sides and promote the healthy development of economic and trade relations.

China has pledged to promote the reduction of trade deficits, which not only reflects its sincerity in addressing the trade imbalance issue but also showcases the strong resilience and adjustment capacity of the Chinese economy. Both sides issued a joint statement expressing their willingness to ease tensions, which is like a spring breeze dispersing the clouds hovering over the global economy, injecting a strong impetus for the recovery of the world economy.

Although the specific details of the agreement have not been made public, U.S. Treasury Secretary Basant stated that the negotiations were 'productive', hinting that more content will be released later. Some analyses suggest that U.S. tariffs may drop to 50% or lower, but this has not been officially confirmed. Regardless of the final adjustment in tariff rates, the outcomes of this negotiation will have a profound impact on the global economy.

The success of this China-U.S. negotiation not only brings new opportunities for the economic development of both countries but also injects strong momentum into the stability and recovery of the global economy. The fundamentals of a roaring bull market are gradually taking shape, and a more open, cooperative, and win-win new global economic landscape is quietly unfolding! Let us wait and see, and witness this historic moment together!#贸易战缓和