On the macro side, the UK-US trade framework has basically landed, and the China-US negotiations have concluded after two days. The Ministry of Commerce has just confirmed the success of the negotiations, and the subsequent tariffs will no longer be 125%, returning to normal levels. Major positive news! Bitcoin has directly surpassed the 105,000 mark, and Ethereum has broken through 2,600.
On May 9, Bitcoin ETF saw a net inflow of 321 million USD, while Ethereum had an inflow of 17.6 million. Last week, BlackRock's IBIT ETF alone saw an inflow of 1 billion USD. I actually don’t quite understand why there is so much off-market capital inflow at this stage; it is likely related to the expectations of the passage of reserve bills in various states.
ETH has risen 40% in three days and has made it to the hot search list of domestic social media. To be honest, this should be considered a bit out of the ordinary. According to the theory 'out of the ordinary leads to demise,' Ethereum should take a hit on the bulls in the coming days. It's not good to let the bulls feel too comfortable.
Without saying too much, today's market mainly comes from the signing of the China-US trade agreement.
Market Interpretation
Bitcoin has surpassed the 105,000 mark, only 4% away from the historical high of 110,000. I think it will still be difficult to directly reach a new high, but a new high should appear. Do you remember what happened when Bitcoin broke through 69,000? Kill! Long! If it reaches that position, there should be a spike in the market.
Ethereum has broken through 2,600, but the exchange rate has not yet returned to 0.025. This exchange rate should be reachable, but once it reaches this rate, it may take a breather. There is no financial market that can keep rising or falling indefinitely, especially not for a 300 billion dollar Ethereum. This position should not be subject to FOMO.
But it is very likely that it is not finished yet, and seeing 2,800 or even 3,000 is possible.
Regarding altcoins:
Last week we captured a lot of new coins' gains because, logically, contracts are still dominant. The trading volume of spot is indeed not showing significant growth, so I believe this wave of altcoin rises lacks independence and long-term sustainability. Especially when Bitcoin and Ethereum experience a pullback, these altcoins will not escape either. This rise is still mainly driven by MEME coins and newly launched coins. This MOODENG has increased tenfold from the bottom, but it has also dropped 95% from the high. This time, pure MEME coins are rising more sharply than AI agents, and most are MEME coins listed on exchanges. Therefore, in the future, we should look for more targets on CEX, and altcoins should not be held long-term anymore; if profits can be taken in the short term, they should be taken.
