1. Why is BTC rising now?

2. Are market makers in a hurry before a possible recession?

3. Or are they in a hurry to passively unload in the summer?

4. What do traders say about the chart structure?

5. Is this the beginning of the alt season?

(Author's text, so errors are possible)

Let's figure it out:

1. Professional participants do not pump without a goal - it is always preparation for the distribution phase. The goal of the pump is to create a "growth showcase", increase liquidity, and prepare for a possible turbulent summer.

2. No, it is certainly possible, but later. Signs of a slowdown are strengthening in the US and Europe. If a recession is officially recognized, markets could plummet sharply. It makes sense to raise the price $BTC before the panic starts to later unload carefully. However, there are nuances! Right now, no one benefits from recognizing a recession, so time will be stretched to the last.

That is, until the end of 2025, an artificial picture of development and well-being will be created.

An official recession can be expected closer to 2026 or at the beginning of that year.

3. Yes, summer low liquidity: activity traditionally decreases in summer due to vacations. The logic is this - it's better to sell on the rise in May-June than to sluggishly dump in July-August.

"Sell in May and go away" is an old stock market wisdom. A pump in April - early May gives large players the opportunity to go into summer in cash or with minimal risks.

Profit fixation by funds: by the end of the half-year (June 30) - reporting. They need to show profits on portfolios (including ETFs).

4. Traders trading by Elliott waves suggest that the corrective sub-wave is ending and the market will move into correction.

Traders following Wyckoff suggest that there may be a formal update of the ATH, after which a correction will occur.

Both groups of traders lean towards the idea that the maximum price could be $110.9K – $111.2K with a subsequent correction around $92K for the summer season.

5. No! Bitcoin has not yet completed its key targets, and until that happens, the alt season will not begin.

Until autumn, altcoins will only have local manipulative pumps and corrections relative to previous movements (+50% – +300%), but this does not constitute a full-fledged alt season.

I've said a lot - it's time to summarize:

Currently, the price is being artificially raised for summer distribution. The alt season is being postponed - a correction of the downward movement is taking place. The last strong impulse is expected in the fall before a possible recession.

Assess the situation soberly and remember: a stop-loss is a trader's friend, not an enemy.

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