The market still follows old patterns.
These past two days, mentioning 'short' has led to criticism, with emotions running high. The best approach is to stay silent and not discuss long or short positions.
Last night in the live stream, I mentioned strong resistance at ETH 2500 and suggested trying to short at 2480, but with a stop loss at 2520, otherwise, a breakout could push it to 3000. It indeed broke out, and this became a reason for more criticism. These people completely ignore the previous reminder of 'don't short at 1850, wait to buy at 1750,' which was the correct judgment.
Now, at these high levels, I dare not say to short, I can only advise against chasing the highs. This phase is prone to violent price spikes for liquidation, not a trend reversal, but the volatility could trigger liquidations. The uncertainty surrounding US-China tariff negotiations suggests it's best not to make rash moves. Trump's words are not trustworthy; wait for official news.
BTC's daily chart has entered a risk zone, with 105000-108000 having seen several significant pullbacks. Although the trend remains strong, don't chase long positions, as the MACD at high levels may consolidate. Once the shorts are wiped out, it will be time to target the longs.
On the four-hour chart, MACD shows 'oil leaking in mid-air,' with severe bearish divergence, indicating short-term pullback risks. It's fine not to short, but don't chase long positions. If you're hesitant to short, wait for a drop below 102000 before following.
The weekly chart shows a shrinking volume increase, with a MACD golden cross, suggesting an upward movement in the larger cycle, and a high probability of breaking previous highs. However, at the current position, don't chase high; wait for a pullback to buy the dip.
Be patient for a few days and see how the situation evolves.
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