Tonight the market might explode!
At 20:30 Beijing time, the U.S. will release the April CPI data, which is like a time bomb that could shake the global markets. In short, three key points:
Good or bad data directly determines life or death
Currently, the market expects the core CPI to rise by 0.3% month-on-month. If the actual data meets or exceeds this, the Federal Reserve may be more hawkish and not cut interest rates, causing the dollar to soar and gold could plunge to 3100. Conversely, if the data disappoints, the expectation of rate cuts will be revived, leading to a stock market frenzy and a surge in gold prices.
The traps set by Trump and Powell
Big-mouth Trump has recently been shouting about lowering tariffs, but if implemented, it could actually fuel inflation. Powell just said this week, "We need to look at the data before making a decision," which is clearly buying time. A single statement from these two can send the market into a frenzy.
Operational strategy: Better to miss out than to make a mistake
Currently, the technical indicators are all misleading; gold has already broken through a key support level, but the RSI has not completely collapsed. My advice: Don't get itchy fingers before the data is released; wait for a clear direction before taking action. If the data and market sentiment resonate and rise, go long; if there's a blowout, quickly escape to prevent a crash, and don't think about bottom-fishing.
Personally, I believe that this data is likely to cause a stir, as the impact of tariffs has just begun to show, but the real inflation bomb may not explode until summer. Tonight could be bloody, and it’s best for us retail investors to stay far away and pick up the pieces after the big players are done fighting.
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