News of the Day: The Federal Reserve's balance increased by 1.6 billion in one week!

▪️Williams, Chair of the Federal Reserve:

- I expect a significant slowdown in economic growth, as well as increases in inflation and unemployment.

- Price stability is the foundation for the Federal Reserve.

- Inflation will return to 2%.

- The next few quarters will help shed light on the state of the economy.

- Trump's comments do not complicate the work of the Federal Reserve.

▪️Kugler, Chair of the Federal Reserve:

- It is unclear how trade policy will change the economic situation.

- We see some risk of rising inflation due to tariffs.

- The U.S. economy has been resilient so far.

- U.S. GDP in the first quarter showed a leading influence from the introduction of trade tariffs.

▪️Barr, Chair of the Federal Reserve:

- The Federal Reserve may find itself in a difficult position if both inflation and unemployment rise.

- There were some anomalous data in U.S. GDP for the first quarter.

💥 Market Expectations (rate #ФРС ):

- June 18: PAUSE.

- July 30: decrease by 25 b.p. to 4.00-4.25%.

- September 17: PAUSE.

- October 29: decrease by 25 b.p. to

3.75-4.00%. decrease by 25 b.p. to 3.50-3.75%.

- December 10: decrease by 25 b.p. to 3.50-3.75%.

- January 28, 2026: PAUSE.

- March 18, 2026: decrease by 25 b.p. to 3.25-3.50%.

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