Quick read of the new daily candle (price now ≈ $19.99, high $21.06)

Factor What the chart shows Reading Now👇🤗

Today’s gain +26 % so far Very strong impulse

Volume ~600 k EGLD (largest since the April‑25 spike) Real buying power, not a thin wick

Bollinger Bands Price has punched straight through the upper band ($19.31) Over‑extended in the intraday sense; often we see a pause or pull‑back after a “band‑break” day

Nearest support $18.70 – $19.00 (upper band zone) Area price could retest if profit‑taking starts

Next resistance $21.50 – $22.00 (February/March supply) Sellers likely to sit there

Likely paths for the rest of the day

Scenario Probability What to watch

A. Momentum push to $21.5–22.0 and close > $20.5 40 % BTC and broad market stay green; volume keeps climbing

B. “Upper‑band fade” – intraday spike has already printed, candle wicks back and closes $19.0–19.5 45 % Profit‑taking appears, volume stalls, 4‑h candles start printing long upper shadows

C. Full reversal back below $18.7 15 % Requires sudden market sell‑off; unlikely while order‑book still bid‑heavy

What this means for a fresh entry

Chasing right here (~$20) is high‑risk: R‑R is only 1–1.5 $ up to first resistance vs 2 $ down to support.

Higher‑probability plan:

1. Wait for a dip / retest zone $18.8 – $19.2.

2. If a bullish 1‑h hammer or strong green 4‑h candle forms there, enter with SL just under $18.5.

3. Targets: $21.5 then $22.8.

If price smashes through $21.5 with volume you can take a breakout entry on the retest of $21.0, SL $20.2, aiming for $23–24.

Bottom line

Today’s candle will most likely close between $19.5 and $21.5.

Best risk‑adjusted entry is on a pull‑back, not at the top of a +26 % bar.

If you are already long, trail your stop under $19.0 and let the move run.

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