Quick read of the new daily candle (price now āāÆ$19.99, high $21.06)
Factor What the chart shows Reading Nowšš¤
Todayās gain +26āÆ% so far Very strong impulse
Volume ~600āÆk EGLD (largest since the Aprilā25 spike) Real buying power, not a thin wick
Bollinger Bands Price has punched straight through the upper band ($19.31) Overāextended in the intraday sense; often we see a pause or pullāback after a ābandābreakā day
Nearest support $18.70āÆāāÆ$19.00 (upper band zone) Area price could retest if profitātaking starts
Next resistance $21.50āÆāāÆ$22.00 (February/March supply) Sellers likely to sit there
Likely paths for the rest of the day
Scenario Probability What to watch
A. Momentum push to $21.5ā22.0 and close >āÆ$20.5 40āÆ% BTC and broad market stay green; volume keeps climbing
B. āUpperāband fadeā ā intraday spike has already printed, candle wicks back and closes $19.0ā19.5 45āÆ% Profitātaking appears, volume stalls, 4āh candles start printing long upper shadows
C. Full reversal back below $18.7 15āÆ% Requires sudden market sellāoff; unlikely while orderābook still bidāheavy
What this means for a fresh entry
Chasing right here (~$20) is highārisk: RāR is only 1ā1.5āÆ$ up to first resistance vs 2āÆ$ down to support.
Higherāprobability plan:
1. Wait for a dip / retest zone $18.8āÆāāÆ$19.2.
2. If a bullish 1āh hammer or strong green 4āh candle forms there, enter with SL just under $18.5.
3. Targets: $21.5 then $22.8.
If price smashes through $21.5 with volume you can take a breakout entry on the retest of $21.0, SL $20.2, aiming for $23ā24.
Bottom line
Todayās candle will most likely close between $19.5 and $21.5.
Best riskāadjusted entry is on a pullāback, not at the top of a +26āÆ% bar.
If you are already long, trail your stop under $19.0 and let the move run.
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