Why didn't today's $SOL explode?

📜 Summary in one sentence

On the surface strong, but in reality hesitant. It's not that there isn't money to push, but rather 'those who should have run didn't run, and those who want to chase are still waiting'.

📈 Structurally: It has shown the 'most likely to explode' appearance

From the 3-hour view, SOL has completed:

BOS confirmation;

Two HL supports;

Breaking above the previous high of 154, daily confirmation of HH structure established;

RSI and OBV diverging in the same direction, all momentum indicators are open;

It belongs to the textbook 'trend internal explosion point'. But the problem is — it actually didn't explode.

💥 Why didn't it explode? Let's look at several key data signals:

1️⃣ CVD vs trading volume is severely diverging

Trading volume has significantly increased (Coinglass shows: today's trading volume is 3.35 billion),

but CVD has not increased synchronously, indicating that the spot/contract buy orders are weak, showing that 'what pushed it up were withdrawn orders, not buyers'.

👉 The dealer didn't get the goods, so the market is fake.

2️⃣ Short positions have not completely exploded

Currently, SOL has 10.49 million USD in short liquidations within 24 hours, compared to 2.4 million USD in long liquidations,

although it seems like the shorts are losing, the issue is: there are still too many short orders left,

the position K-line shows: short positions are still maintained and have not truly exploded in a cascade.

👉 In other words: now the shorts are 'not believing in evil', and the dealer is too lazy to push hard.

3️⃣ Long funds have not kept up

The long-short ratio is as high as 1.79:1 (big holder position ratio),

but the funding rate is still close to 0 (0.0058%),

indicating that the longs have not opened new positions on a large scale but are eating the previous floating profit orders.

👉 The long position structure is old, wanting to surge but no one dares to jump in.

🎭 Market psychological portrait:

The shorts are 'not believing',

the longs are 'not daring',

the dealer is waiting, 'either you explode first, or I won’t pull up'.

✅ Conclusion:

Currently, SOL is in a typical blunt state of 'extremely strong structure + extremely weak data'.

It’s not that it can’t rise, but it lacks gunpowder.

Either another spike to sweep the shorts and then take off;

or simply wait for BTC to break out in direction and then rise accordingly.

📌 Operational suggestions (not investment advice):

Be cautious in chasing shorts unless it breaks below 151 to confirm CHoCH;

Temporarily hold off on chasing highs for longs, wait for the next HL + OB zone confirmation before participating.