The shocking pin was staged at $ETH , with prices crashing from 1970 to around 1950, the lowest point of 195 suspected to be data anomalies but bears have already shown their power. The current market is pressed between the lower and middle Bollinger Bands, with the middle band at 1956 creating a magnetic attraction effect. The MACD continues to diverge with a bearish cross under water, the yellow and purple lines stab down like a sharp blade, and bearish momentum dominates absolutely. The volume shows a continuous shrinkage after a sharp decline in the early session, with bulls collectively playing dead at the key psychological level of 1950. On-chain monitoring shows whales are offloading in the 1950-1980 range, and spot buying needs to be cautious of knife-like price movements.
The news front is intertwined with both bullish and bearish signals: the single-day net inflow of $142 million into the Bitcoin ETF is met with continuous selling pressure from Grayscale, creating a market sentiment as tense as a drawn bowstring.
Although the Federal Reserve's policy remains unchanged, Powell's ambiguous statement of "possible interest rate cuts" has made both bulls and bears hesitant to engage in high-stakes betting. The Pectra upgrade promoted by Vitalik faces real-world embarrassment—continued bloodletting from Layer 2 has caused the mainnet's TVL to drop to a three-month low, making it difficult to change the funding sentiment before favorable outcomes materialize.
The critical game of positions will be revealed in the afternoon: 1941 serves as the support resonating with the lower Bollinger Band and the previous daily low. Below, 1920 is concealed with the weekly MA30 and the Fibonacci 38.2% retracement as a double defense line. A concentration of liquidation orders could trigger a waterfall market. Above, the middle band at 1956 acts as a watershed for bulls and bears; if it holds, one could see a pullback to 1960, but caution is needed as the 'dog capital' might set a stop-loss zone at 1975.
On-chain data shows there's an options barrier worth 23,000 ETH in the 1950-1960 range, and a breakthrough requires at least 8,000 ETH of instantaneous buying.
Contract players are shorting in batches as they rebound to the 1962-1965 range, tightening stop-loss to 1973, with targets downward at 1941/1920. Spot traders await a solid hold above 1980 and a TVL recovery above $6.5 billion before considering a right-side entry, guarding against a second dip after a sharp bull market kill.
The current volatility index has risen to 87, and ultra-short-term traders can capture grid trades in the 1945-1958 range, but positions should not exceed 2 hours!
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