【 $BTC Market Analysis｜Evening Edition on May 8】

Current Price: Around 99,800

Structure Level: 3H, 45m, 15m all maintain a bullish structure, consolidating at high levels

Key Ranges:

Support: 98,300 (if it pulls back without breaking, it leans strong)

Resistance: 100,500 (breakthrough will enter a new space)

🚀 Market Structure Overview

3-Hour Structure: Continuous boards HH → HL, currently approaching the previous high upper edge at the 100K psychological level; a solid HL has formed at the bottom.

45-Minute Rhythm: The rebound rhythm starting from 96,000 is very smooth, and there are currently no obvious signals of weakness.

15-Minute Rhythm: In the last two rounds of surge, there has been no pullback to the OB area, the main force is clearly “grabbing the rhythm,” aiming to create FOMO.

🔍 Data Observation

Contract Trading Volume +17%, Open Interest +8.39%, indicating that capital is continuously entering the market.

Liquidation Data: Over 21.87 million USD in short positions liquidated within 4 hours, and the market has squeezed shorts for two consecutive rounds.

Funding Rate: Slightly positive (+0.0026), but bulls are not showing extreme; indicating that the trend can still be sustained.

Large Holder Long/Short Ratio (Binance): Large holder position ratio 1.30, with bulls in the majority.

🔍 Trading Scenario Simulation

✅ Scenario A: Strong Continuation

Trigger Condition: Stabilize above 98,300

Trading Method: Pull back to a small OB + HL confirmation can attempt to chase long

Target Range: 100,000 – 101,500

Warning Point: If there is a continuous increase in volume at high levels after a sharp rise and no new highs are made, beware of a false breakout turning weak.

⚠️ Scenario B: False Breakout Turning Weak

Trigger Condition: Break below 98,300 + OBV Divergence + CHoCH

Trading Method: After forming LH + CHoCH on 15m/3m, short on rebound, set stop loss above the previous high.

Target Range: Retrace to the 96,800 – 97,200 range

🎯 Trading Tips

✅ The current scenario leans towards “power accumulation breakthrough,” but beware of sudden pullbacks after a high-level peak.

📉 All reverse signals are currently only for taking profits/observation and should not be used as a basis for counter-trading.