Bitcoin's Turning Point: In-Depth Analysis of the Market and Survival Guide (Beijing Time, 3 AM, CME Futures Gap Emits Dangerous Signals)
I. Policy-Level Nuclear-Level Game
Last night, the Federal Reserve meeting minutes released three fatal signals:
Interest Rate Policy Iron Curtain
Powell clearly ruled out the possibility of interest rate cuts before September, and the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield broke through the psychological barrier of 4.5%.
Regulatory Firepower Fully Open
The SEC suddenly accelerated the review of cryptocurrency ETF option products, and the Chicago Bitcoin futures open interest plummeted by 18%, suggesting that institutional funds are withdrawing from risk exposure.
Geopolitical Black Swan Flaps Its Wings
On the eve of U.S.-China tariff negotiations, the implied volatility of Nasdaq 100 index futures soared by 37%, and the correlation coefficient between Bitcoin and U.S. stocks rose back to the dangerous zone of 0.89.
II. Technical Death Triangle Formation
The daily chart is displaying a textbook-level top structure:
Three Peaks: $98,500/$99,300/$98,700 forming triple pressure
Volume Divergence: Trading volume decreased by 23% as prices reached new highs
MACD Cliff: The distance between the daily fast and slow lines reached the maximum value since 2025, RSI top divergence persists for 14 trading days
III. Retail Investor Survival Manual
Emergency Position Management Plan
Spot position holders immediately initiate "10% Ladder Take Profit": Reduce 10% for every 2% increase
Contract players switch to "Dual Stop Strategy": Set take profit for every $500 above $99,000, and initiate 3x reverse hedging if it falls below $96,500
Turning Point Node Monitoring
Key Time Window: May 7, 20:30 Beijing Time (U.S. CPI data release)
Life and Death Line: Daily closing price below $95,300 for two consecutive days confirms the start of a bear market
Cognitive Defense Matrix
Beware of "Market Support Theory": Any rally without accompanying volume breakout is a trap
Dispelling the "Clone Season Fantasy": The 30-day volatility difference of mainstream coins like ETH/BCH has expanded to 41%, and the fund diversion effect has disappeared
Remember this Iron Rule
Top traders never hold positions overnight during critical policy windows
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