📈 Federal Reserve decision overview
✅ Federal funds rate remains unchanged at 4.25%-4.5%, marking the third consecutive pause, in line with market expectations.
✅ Key statement: Emphasizes the increased risks of inflation and rising unemployment rates, tariffs impacting more than expected, and Powell clearly stating 'not in a hurry to cut rates,' needing to wait for more data guidance.
📉 Crypto market response: A tale of two extremes
Bitcoin (BTC): After the resolution, it plummeted to around $98,000, nearly breaking the $100,000 mark, with a liquidation amount of $702 million in 24 hours (Data source: Coinglass).
Meme coins and AI tokens: Short-term volatility intensifies, with investors turning to safe-haven assets like gold.
🔍 Core logic analysis
1️⃣ Liquidity tightening continues: High interest rate environment suppresses risk asset valuations, and the crypto market is under pressure.
2️⃣ Inflation and tariff risks: Powell warns that tariffs may push up inflation; if policies persist, the crypto market may face long-term uncertainty.
3️⃣ Rate cut expectations cool down: Although traders still bet on three rate cuts this year, Powell signaled 'delayed until next year,' undermining short-term market confidence.
📊 Key technical levels (using Bitcoin as an example)
Support levels: $95,000 (previous low), $90,000 (psychological level)
Resistance levels: $103,000 (recent high), $108,000 (2024 high)
Operational advice: High probability of short-term fluctuations, focus on buying opportunities in the 95,000-103,000 range, and pay attention to position control.
💡 Risks that investors need to be wary of
Policy black swan: Trump's fluctuating tariff policies and shifts in Federal Reserve decisions may trigger severe volatility.
Market sentiment transmission: Volatility in US tech stocks (e.g., Google plummeting 7%) may affect the crypto market.
Regulatory dynamics: Changes in the US SEC chair, ETF approval progress, and other event-driven risks.
📌 Key points to watch in the future
June Federal Reserve meeting: Will there be an adjustment to the 'wait-and-see' stance?
Direction of Trump's policies: Will tariffs escalate further?
💬 Interactive topic:
When do you think the Federal Reserve will start the rate-cutting cycle?
👉 A. Rate cuts before July (Market mainstream expectation)
👉 B. Only 1-2 rate cuts this year (Powell's signal)
👉 C. Delayed until 2026 (lowest risk appetite)
Feel free to share your thoughts in the comments!
#美联储利率 #比特币预测 #BTC交易 #美联储FOMC会议 #交易故事 $BTC
