Gold has slightly retreated but remains strong, the dollar index saw a brief rebound but has not broken above 100, US bond yields briefly retreated before returning to high levels, and Nasdaq futures rose slightly before quickly retreating.
Safe-haven demand has not rapidly diminished due to the morning's US-China trade negotiation news, and even formed new potential support due to the escalation of the India-Pakistan conflict, but BTC indeed received solid emotional support from New Hampshire passing the strategic Bitcoin reserve bill.
The conclusion is that capital remains in a wait-and-see attitude regarding the risks in the dollar market, and BTC has a probability of once again exhibiting an independent trend as an alternative safe-haven asset.
It was mentioned yesterday that Iran may become the US's unique oil supplier.
In fact, regarding BTC, the US might even raise BTC prices in exchange for oil.
Why?
It is believed that Iran may have the world's largest BTC mining facilities.
And at this moment,
Israel is initiating the conflict narrative in the Middle East, while India and Pakistan are stoking disputes in South Asia, creating two storylines that generate new arms demand following the Russia-Ukraine battlefield. Israel is attacking the defenseless Hamas and Yemen, which has already been seen as expendable by Iran and Russia. The next location likely to escalate the conflict may very well be Asia.
War needs oil, and Iran needs money.
OPEC's emergency production increase may be to coerce Iran into reaching a deeper cooperation with the US before actual production increases lead to oil depreciation.
How much does Iran have left that the US wants?
1. Oil
2. The ability to create expectations of conflict in the Middle East in cooperation with the US.
3. BTC
Next comes a series of tightly connected and coincidental timelines:
• At 2:00 AM Beijing time on the 8th, the Federal Reserve's interest rate decision, and at 2:30, the monetary policy press conference.
• At 5:00 AM Beijing time on the 8th, the ceasefire plan announced by Russia (although Zelensky has unilaterally questioned its motives, Russia has not rescinded it yet) begins to be implemented and will end at 5:00 AM on May 11.
• At 0:12 AM Beijing time on the 7th, Trump stated that he would announce a very positive announcement on Thursday or Friday (before his trip to the Middle East).
• At 5:00 AM Beijing time on the 7th, Pakistan and India began exchanging fire.
• At 6:00 AM Beijing time on the 7th (an unconventional time for news announcements), the Ministry of Commerce of Japan announced it agrees to engage with the US on trade issues.
• At 3:00 PM on the 6th Beijing time, China and the European Parliament fully lifted mutual interaction restrictions.
The intricacies are thought-provoking.
Overall, there remains the possibility of escalation in South Asian conflicts, ____ may be compelled to make indirect trade concessions, both major powers are scrambling for money, and currently, it appears that ____ is more anxious or has a more urgent agenda.
Europe may be using _____ to gain leverage in trade and energy price negotiations, but it seems that the US is still a step ahead. In this view, uncertainties in US-EU trade negotiations remain, and Europe still has room to maneuver.
If a series of favorable news is deliberately chosen to create positive sentiment before the interest rate decision and the Russia-Ukraine ceasefire, suggesting the Fed will dovishly ignite market sentiment, while the main players attempt to solidify this unconscious judgment through price performance, then tonight's risk market may face significant volatility.
To take a step back, trade negotiations and the dovish comments that do not bring immediate policy changes have long been a part of the market pricing, but trade negotiations cannot quickly provide clear results, and interest rate cuts are likely to be a matter for June. However, geopolitical conflicts and the demand for arms consumption are real and present.
Will BTC show its safe-haven asset characteristics again?
Let's wait and see.
❤ Serious Statement ❤ All of the above is merely personal analysis and does not constitute investment advice, and no responsibility is assumed for any implications. Investment carries risks, and operations should be cautious.