Key points to monitor in this interest rate announcement:
Current interest rate: 4.5%
Market expectation: Slight decrease below 4.5% after adjustment
What scenarios could occur at this FED meeting?
🔸 According to data from the FED WATCHTOOL, the probability of the FED keeping interest rates unchanged has reached 98.8%. This information is already known by most people, and it would be no surprise if the FED does not lower rates. However, the likelihood of 'borrowing news to drive prices' is very high.
🔸 Keeping the interest rate unchanged brings positive impacts:
✔ Helps stabilize the financial system, limiting unexpected fluctuations
✔ Loan and savings interest rates remain unchanged, allowing individuals and businesses to plan their finances
✔ Spillover effects on the global economy, especially in countries closely tied to the USD or relying on exports to the US
🕑 Important highlight:
Even though the interest rate is kept unchanged this time, the focus remains on Powell's speech at 01:30 AM. The content of his speech will reveal signals for the FOMC meeting in June, where the FED WATCHTOOL currently predicts a 65% probability of maintaining the interest rate (especially after the Nonfarm report released last week).
