Forecast for BTC Trend in the Next 24 Hours

Technical Analysis:

* Key Resistance: $98,000 (4-hour Bollinger Band upper limit), $100,000 (psychological level).

* Key Support: $95,000 (EMA120 moving average), $93,400 (yesterday's low).

* Indicator Signals: RSI (4-hour) is currently 68, approaching the overbought zone; TD sequence shows a demand for a pullback after 9 consecutive bullish candles.

Event Driven:

* Bullish: BlackRock's increased holdings, Ethereum's Pectra upgrade testnet launch (Beijing Time 18:05).

* Bearish: Fed's hawkish risks, regulatory hearing deadlock, TD sequence overbought signal.

Probability Distribution:

* Upward (break above $98,000): 50% (if Powell's speech is neutral and ETH upgrade goes smoothly).

* Consolidation ($95,000-$98,000): 30% (market waiting for the Fed's decision).

* Downward (break below $95,000): 20% (hawkish signals trigger leveraged liquidations).

Operational Suggestions:

* Aggressive Strategy: Short with light position at current price of $97,100, stop loss at $98,500, target at $95,500; reverse to long if it breaks $98,200.

* Conservative Strategy: Hold spot and observe, increase positions in batches when it pulls back to the $95,500-$96,000 range.