Forecast for BTC Trend in the Next 24 Hours
Technical Analysis:
* Support Level: $93,000–$93,500 (recently dense trading area, breaking or testing the psychological level of $90,000).
* Resistance Level: $95,500–$96,000 (previous high resistance zone, breaking could challenge $98,000).
* Key Indicators: RSI (daily) currently at 54, neutral to strong; MACD fast and slow lines are converging, short-term direction pending confirmation.
Driving Factors:
* Bullish: Clarification of regulatory framework, rising expectations for interest rate cuts, signals of institutional entry.
* Bearish: Hawkish risks from the Federal Reserve, technical selling pressure, insufficient holiday liquidity.
Probability Distribution:
* Upward (break above $96,000): 40% (if policy benefits ferment and capital inflows accelerate).
* Downward (break below $93,000): 30% (if the Federal Reserve releases tightening signals or triggers leveraged liquidation).
* Consolidation ($93,500–$95,500): 30% (market awaiting Ethereum upgrade on May 7 and Federal Reserve resolution).
Operation Suggestions:
* Short Term: Focus on $93,500 support, accumulate positions on dips, avoid chasing highs; set stop loss if breaking below $93,000.