Just as the market anticipates a new round of historical highs for cryptocurrencies, the uncertainty of policies has once again put nerves on edge. Matt Hogan, Chief Information Officer of Bitwise, recently issued a stern warning: if Congress cannot finalize clear crypto regulatory legislation in the final stages, this summer may very well become the 'darkest hour' for the entire industry.
Optimistic outlook vs. fragile reality
In his latest report to clients on Monday, Hogan continued to express strong optimism about the long-term prospects of digital assets. He boldly predicted that multiple cryptocurrencies are likely to hit all-time highs in the near future, with Bitcoin even having the potential to reach $200,000 during this administration. However, behind this bull market lies a significant risk that cannot be ignored—an extremely weak regulatory foundation.
“Unless Congress writes regulatory clarity into law, all the positive progress we see now is built on a very fragile foundation,” Hogan said bluntly. Although the Trump administration has recently taken a series of supportive measures, such as withdrawing some SEC enforcement actions and promoting Bitcoin as a strategic reserve, Hogan reminds everyone that executive orders are far less solid than legislation, and these measures could be overturned at any time in the future when there is a change in administration.
Stablecoin legislation 'falls short', internal policy battles intensify
In March of this year, the market was once filled with hope as the Senate Banking Committee smoothly passed the bipartisan (GENIUS Act), paving the way for the compliance of stablecoins. This bill requires that stablecoins must be 100% reserve-backed, undergo regular audits, and comply with strict marketing and bankruptcy terms, which was once seen as a significant breakthrough for the crypto market into the mainstream financial system.
However, just last weekend, all of this came to a sudden halt. Nine Democratic senators, including Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer, abruptly withdrew their support due to concerns about whether anti-money laundering and national security provisions were strong enough. Hogan expressed dissatisfaction with this, pointing out that the new version of the bill had already been strengthened in these areas, stating, 'This capricious attitude reflects that political winds are more destructive than actual policy differences.'
Additionally, Hogan criticized the industry's attempt to push the GENIUS Act and market structure reform 'together', arguing that this strategy could cause both to derail, complicating the situation further.
House turmoil continues, political factors keep stirring the pot
The House is also not at peace. Reports indicate that Democrats plan to boycott the upcoming joint hearing on the structure of the crypto market, meaning another political game surrounding cryptocurrency has already begun. Against this backdrop, another piece of legislation called the 'Stable Act' is slowly progressing, but whether it can withstand heavy resistance remains a question mark.
Complicating matters, the decentralized finance platform 'World Freedom Finance', recently supported by Trump, has launched its own stablecoin, reigniting political discussions around digital currencies. Hogan warned that the market must not only be wary of policy-level differences but also pay attention to the risks of intertwining digital currency with political interests.
Florida 'withdraws', crypto development faces setbacks again
Just as a tug-of-war is happening at the federal level, the state level is also cooling down. Florida has become the latest state in the U.S. to abandon the establishment of a strategic Bitcoin reserve, with two key bills (House Bill 487 and Senate Bill 550) officially exiting the legislative process on May 3. Although the legislative session has been extended to June 6 to address other issues, it has clearly stated that it will no longer discuss cryptocurrency matters.
This puts Florida in a 'losers club' that includes Wyoming, North and South Dakota, Pennsylvania, Montana, and Oklahoma, all of which attempted to promote similar Bitcoin investment plans but failed. The ongoing setbacks in policy once again expose the reality that cryptocurrency has not yet been fully accepted by mainstream politics in the U.S.
Information asymmetry is the biggest risk; insight is the true strength
Faced with this rapidly changing policy environment, what investors fear most is not market declines but the 'unforeseen' risks brought about by information asymmetry. Hogan's warning undoubtedly emphasizes again: whether it is the anticipation of price peaks or shifts in policy direction, investors need to possess strong information acquisition and interpretation capabilities.
This is also why AI investment research assistants like Mlion.ai are gaining more attention. It can not only track global crypto policy dynamics in real time but also help users seize potential opportunities behind policies through data analysis, on-chain sentiment monitoring, and deep analysis of news. This kind of sharp 'information radar' is particularly important in times of policy uncertainty.
Conclusion: Whether the bull market can continue hinges on policy
Hogan lastly pointed out: 'Stablecoins have positive significance for the U.S., the dollar, and the innovation ecosystem. We should not let political maneuvers undermine this progress. If Washington can act, the bull market will be unstoppable; otherwise, we must prepare for a very difficult summer.'
This 'last mile' of the crypto world tests not only market patience but also political wisdom. For investors, maintaining clarity and staying informed is the winning strategy to navigate through cycles.
Disclaimer: The above content is for informational sharing only and does not constitute any investment advice! Investment carries risks, and one should be cautious when entering the market.