On May 8th, Beijing time, the Federal Reserve maintained the target range for the federal funds rate at 4.25%-4.5% as expected, which fully aligns with market expectations. However, what is more noteworthy than the result is the subsequent press conference, where Federal Reserve Chairman Powell clearly stated: 'The Federal Reserve's way of working will not be influenced by President Trump.'
In one sentence, it is a response to external doubts, as well as an oath of independence. More profoundly, this statement not only relates to the independence of U.S. monetary policy but also becomes a key clue for global capital markets, especially the crypto asset market, in interpreting future risk preferences.
I. The Federal Reserve's 'Inactivity': Calm on the Surface, but Turbulent Underneath
This marks the second consecutive time the Federal Reserve has kept interest rates unchanged. After a cumulative 100 basis points cut last year, the Fed chose to 'wait and see' at the current level, partly in response to high inflation pressure and partly to assess the feasibility of an economic 'soft landing'.
In the latest statement, the Federal Reserve added that 'the risks of rising unemployment and inflation have both increased', while for the first time mentioning 'the impact of net export fluctuations on data', indicating that external economic fluctuations have become a new variable facing the U.S. economy. Compared to the March statement, this one is more cautious, and the 'ambiguity' regarding the future policy direction has further increased.
Powell emphasized at the press conference: 'We always only consider economic data, prospects, and risk balance.' He also stated directly that he has never actively sought to meet with any president, nor would he adjust policy direction due to the president's public statements. Implicitly, the independence of the Federal Reserve is not to be challenged.
It is worth noting that in the past month, Trump has repeatedly called for the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates, even threatening to dismiss Powell at one point, but recently he has 'changed his tune', claiming he will not remove Powell. There are widespread concerns that Trump intends to influence monetary policy through public opinion and political pressure. However, from Powell's statements, at least for now, the Federal Reserve still adheres to the principle of 'technical decision-making'.
II. Behind the Policy Independence: New Variables in the Crypto Market
Why is this press conference attracting so much attention from the crypto market? Because in a market environment driven by macro liquidity, every word, pause, and layer of suggestion from the Federal Reserve serves as a 'beacon' for capital seeking direction.
The Federal Reserve remains inactive, temporarily postponing the 'interest rate hike risk', providing breathing space for risk assets. However, the statement about 'rising inflation and unemployment risks' makes the market realize that the Federal Reserve has not completely escaped the 'predicament'. There is still a possibility of 're-tightening' due to data changes in the future.
This means that the current interest rate level may become a 'policy plateau' in the medium to short term, but it is not a 'prelude to rate cuts'. For traditional markets, this means volatility will continue; for the crypto market, the signal released is that dollar liquidity will not tighten significantly in the short term, and risk assets will not face systemic selling pressure, but caution is still needed against potential policy reversals in the medium to long term.
Especially under the repeated emphasis on 'Federal Reserve independence', investors need to be wary of the risk of 'non-economic intervention' in the policy path. If political factors intervene in monetary policy in the future, the market's 'predictability of policy' may significantly decrease, and the demand for capital hedging will increase. The appeal of Bitcoin, Ethereum, and other 'non-sovereign assets' may be further amplified amid this uncertainty.
III. On-Chain Transmission: The Next Driving Force for Bitcoin's Price
In the past week, market expectations for a 'dovish shift' from the Federal Reserve have gradually cooled, and Bitcoin's price has corrected from its nearly $100,000 high. However, under Powell's reaffirmation of independence, unchanged interest rates, and signals of policy observation, Bitcoin's price regained support.
On-chain data shows that the chip distribution by long-term holders around $95,000 has weakened, while signs of short-term capital replenishment have increased. Coupled with policy resonance from other regions (such as China's 'dual reduction' policy and some U.S. states passing Bitcoin reserve legislation), Bitcoin's property as a 'non-traditional safe-haven asset' is being strengthened.
For investors, during this stage, the most crucial factor is not just price points, but the interpretation of macro liquidity and policy paths. In the short term, no rate hike = support for risk assets, but unclear policy = limited price upside.
Therefore, the operational strategy for Bitcoin should not be 'chasing highs and cutting losses', but rather 'leveraging range fluctuations and accumulating long-term chips'. Especially when the Federal Reserve's policy enters a 'data-dependent' state, on-chain data, capital flow, and whale behavior will better predict turning points than pure technical indicators. At this time, using AI investment research assistants like Mlion.ai to track on-chain data, market sentiment, and policy opinions in real-time can help investors capture those signals that are 'calm on the surface, but turbulent underneath'.
IV. The 'Dual Game' of Policy and Technology: The Next Opportunity in the Crypto Market
The Federal Reserve's decision to keep interest rates unchanged seems to have limited impact on the market, but in the context of policy independence, the dollar cycle, and the relationship between the Federal Reserve and the president, this decision is actually 'definitive'.
In the long term, if the Federal Reserve can continue to uphold its independence and avoid cutting interest rates prematurely due to political pressure, the liquidity tightening expectations in traditional markets will persist, and risk assets will oscillate under 'policy constraints'. However, if Trump is elected in the future and political intervention escalates, the direction of monetary policy may again become 'politicized', at which point crypto assets will become an important channel for 'institutional hedging'.
On the technical side, as Web3 infrastructure matures, zero-knowledge proofs, and modular blockchains come to fruition, the entire crypto ecosystem is forming a positive feedback loop in the 'infrastructure-application-capital' chain. The uncertainty of the policy path will instead accelerate capital's layout of 'decentralized, intervention-resistant, cross-sovereign' assets and technologies.
Conclusion: Hidden Turning Points in Calm Waters, the Next Wave of Opportunities Belongs to Those Who Plan Ahead
Powell's statement that 'the Federal Reserve will not be influenced by Trump' seems calm, but reveals a 'silent struggle' between policy, power, and market expectations.
For the crypto market, this serves both as support for short-term 'risk-free premiums' and as a foreshadowing of 'increased uncertainty' in the medium to long term.
What investors need to do is not to speculate on the ups and downs of every policy meeting, but to build an asset portfolio that can traverse cycles and find a 'dynamic balance' between risk and return. At the same time, by utilizing data-driven tools like Mlion.ai, one can discover those 'signals that precede price' within policy signals, on-chain behavior, and emotional momentum, which is the true leading edge.
Disclaimer: The above content is for informational sharing only and does not constitute any investment advice! Investing involves risks, and one should proceed with caution.