$BTC 一、Technical Analysis
The current Bitcoin price is oscillating around the 94,300 range, with the 4-hour candlestick chart showing three consecutive bearish candles, indicating a clear bearish dominance. From the technical indicators perspective, the MACD histogram continues to maintain negative values, further confirming the dominance of bearish forces.
In terms of key price levels, there is significant support at 93,500, where the 200-day moving average is located, providing strong support for the price. If this support level is lost, the Bitcoin price may further decline to the 90,000 level. The upper resistance level is at 97,384, which is the high point on May 5. If this resistance level is successfully broken, it will open up upward space and may initiate a push towards the 100,000 round number.
二、Market Sentiment and Capital Flow Analysis
1. Policy Level: The U.S. House of Representatives today announced a cryptocurrency regulatory draft, which is expected to intensify market volatility in the short term, and investors need to closely monitor policy details and market reactions.
2. Positioning Situation: Currently, 88% of the circulating Bitcoin market is in profit, indicating that the overall positioning cost in the market is relatively low, providing some support for the price. The 75,000 - 95,000 range has formed a new structural bottom, with considerable support strength.
三、Operational Strategy
1. Aggressive Strategy: If the Bitcoin price dips to the 93,500 support level and stabilizes there, consider attempting a small position long. It is recommended to set the stop-loss at 93,000, with a target price looking towards the 97,384 resistance level.
2. Conservative Strategy: Patiently wait for the price to effectively break the 97,384 resistance level, then follow the trend to enter long. Set the stop-loss at 96,500, with a target price looking to the 100,000 round number.
3. Shorting Strategy: Once the price breaks below the key support level of 93,500, consider entering short positions when the price rebounds to around 94,000. Set the stop-loss at 94,500, with the target price looking down to 90,000.
graph TD;
A[Bitcoin price oscillates at 94,300] --> B[4-hour candlestick shows three consecutive bearish candles, MACD histogram is negative, bearish dominance]
B --> C[Key support level 93,500 (200-day moving average)]
C --> D{Is the support level broken?}
D -->|Yes| E[Price declines to 90,000]
D -->|No| F[Maintains oscillation or rebounds]
B --> G[Upper resistance level 97,384 (May 5 high)]
G --> H{Is the resistance level broken?}
H -->|Yes| I[Impacts the 100,000 level]
