Bitcoin is experiencing intensified short-term bulls and bears! Key support is here
Brothers, at 1 PM Beijing time on May 6th, Bitcoin is quoted around 93,800 USD. In the past three days, it has dropped from 97.8K to 93.4K, accumulating a liquidation of 116 million USD in long positions, and market sentiment has noticeably cooled. Combining the latest data and news, let’s discuss a few key logical points simply:
1. Short-term support looks at 93K; if it breaks, it may head straight for 90,000
I warned everyone yesterday that 93K is the short-term defense line, and if it breaks, it might retest 90,000 USD (or even 88K). On-chain data shows that currently, 88% of BTC circulation is in profit, and the 75K-95K range is seen as a new structural bottom, indicating strong support near 93K. However, the funding rate has turned negative, and the leverage ratio for bulls is relatively high. If the Federal Reserve meeting tonight is hawkish, it may trigger further corrections.
2. Macro headwinds are suppressing, rate cut expectations are cooling
US service sector PMI and ISM data both disappointed, but inflation indicators (non-manufacturing price index) soared to a one-year high, with the probability of a Fed rate cut in May dropping to 0%, and June's probability also under 30%. This wave of 'stagflation' risk makes institutions cautious, and Bitcoin lacks the macro fuel to break through 100,000 USD; in the short term, only swing trading is possible.
3. On-chain data is healthy, long-term players are holding steady
Don’t be fooled by price fluctuations; the on-chain fundamentals are actually quite stable. The MVRV ratio has returned to the long-term average, NVT is neutral, and miners have not sold off in large quantities, indicating that long-term holders are not panicking. Standard Chartered Bank has set a target of 120,000 USD for the second quarter, and institutional funds (like ETFs with a net inflow of 1.8 billion USD last week) are still quietly bottom-fishing.
4. Operational advice: Keep a close eye on 93K, the breakout resistance level is at 97.8K
The short-term strategy can be summarized in one word: endure! Near 93K, you can try a small long position, but if it breaks, cut losses directly; the upper resistance is seen in the 97.8K-98K range, where a large number of short positions have accumulated, and a breakout could trigger a short squeeze. Mid-term players are advised to wait for the CPI and PPI data (to be released next week) before taking action; don’t play with leveraged bets.
Summary: Bitcoin is currently a contradiction of macro headwinds and healthy on-chain metrics, with short-term fluctuations dominating, but the long-term trend remains intact. Remember, bull markets often see sharp declines; hold your spot positions steadily and don’t exit easily, while contract traders should manage stop-losses well, and don't get caught by sudden market moves!
