Discussion on Hot Topics:
Let's first talk about the current market, which can be understood as a big gambling arena. Everyone is betting on whether the American economy will completely fail and whether interest rate cuts will come to the rescue. If the American economy really falters, interest rate cuts will surely follow.
This is also why many people feel that the market is going to crash; the trend looks bearish, but it's not easy to go short for the medium to long term.
Regarding the current market, it might give you a big surge before a real crash, increasing to near previous highs, causing your shorts to get liquidated before going down.
Looking back to last Friday, Bitcoin rose from 97.5 to 97.8k. That’s a 300-point move, but not many dared to go short. Why? Because of the previous bulldozer-like rise, moving 1000-2000 points little by little, directly shattering many people's fantasies that 95k was the top.
The trading plan is all messed up, feeling anxious. Who still dares to act casually? Most people are fully leveraged, and they can't hold positions at 98 or 99k. Either they have to guess the top within a narrow range around 100U, or they have to cut losses and leave, which is not much different from gambling.
Yesterday's analysis article also mentioned that around 92.8k is a good cross-support position for going long, with a good chance of profit. But when it really gets there, bulls might think: let's see if it drops to 88k, while bears might feel: let's see if it rebounds to 95k first.
As a result, in this back-and-forth process, opportunities are lost. So if everyone wants to be steady, they can only honestly engage in certain trading within a larger range and stop messing around. Enduring loneliness will lead to rewards; otherwise, it's just looking for trouble.
Back to Bitcoin, currently oscillating in the middle and lower range of the 12-hour chart, the decline in the 4 to 8-hour timeframe has stopped. In the early morning, the smaller cycles below 1 hour showed some strength, but when it rose near the 12-hour Bollinger band midline at 95.1k, it was pushed down.
The daily chart shows a death cross, but the 12-hour level adjustment is not over yet, with support around 93.3k still holding firm; the bulls haven't completely failed.
And tomorrow night, the Federal Reserve's interest rate meeting will definitely make some noise, so in the next couple of days, when trading short-term, positions and leverage should be tightened a bit. Don’t take unnecessary risks.
Trend Analysis:
Resistance Level Reference:
First Resistance Level: 95400
Second Resistance Level: 94700
Support Level Reference:
First Support Level: 93500-93800
Second Support Level: 92800
Today's Suggestion:
Currently, Bitcoin is still in a downtrend, and will fluctuate with the trend line in the short term. If a rebound occurs and breaks the downward trend line, pay attention to whether the price stabilizes in the range of 94.5 to 94.7k.
The first support given in yesterday's analysis at 93.5 to 93.8k is the key support area in the short term, which was previously a low point. If it breaks below this level, the downtrend will intensify.
Currently, the price has temporarily maintained the range of 935 to 93.8k, which can be seen as a good risk-reward area. Although there is a chance for a rebound, the lack of buying power means the rebound's duration is short.
5.6 Analysis by Expert:
Long Entry Position Reference: Long in the range of 92000-92800 in batches. Target: 93800-94700
Short Entry Position Reference: Short in the range of 95400-96000 in batches. Target: 93800-92800
