To understand $BTC market cycles, we can divide them into three main phases:

1. Cycle Bottom to Present – measures the gain from the most recent bear market low to the current price.

2. Present to Cycle Top – estimates the potential upside from now until the next market peak.

Let’s break this down with approximate numbers:

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Latest Cycle Bottom

Date: November 2022

Price: ~$15,500

Present (as of May 6, 2025)

Price: ~$63,000 (approximate, can verify live for exact value)

Cycle Bottom to Present

Gain:

\frac{63,000 - 15,500}{15,500} \times 100 \approx 306\%

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Potential Cycle Top

Historically, $BTC has done 3x to 10x from cycle bottom to top. If we project conservatively:

Low estimate (4x bottom): ~$62,000

Mid estimate (5x bottom): ~$77,500

High estimate (7x bottom): ~$108,500

Let’s say we expect a top around $100,000–120,000.

Present to Cycle Top Estimate

At $100K:

$BTC

\frac{100,000 - 63,000}{63,000} \times 100 \approx 58.7\%

\frac{120,000 - 63,000}{63,000} \times 100 \approx 90.5\%

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