đ The Illusion of Support: Why 80% of Levels Fail (and How to Identify the 20% That Really Hold)
You place a trade on a "solid" support, and BOOM: brutal break.
You didn't analyze poorly... you just used a false support.
Not all levels are created equal.
Here are the 5 criteria I use to validate a TRUE institutional support:
1. Increasing Volume on the Bounce
A true support attracts large volumes. If the price hits the level with no notable reaction = caution.
2. Quick Reaction (Wick + Bullish Close)
A good support triggers a sharp reaction, not a soft or hesitant bounce.
3. Multi-Timeframe Alignment
The support must exist across multiple timeframes (e.g., H4 + D1). Otherwise, it is fragile.
4. Confluence with an Order Block or FVG
A technical level is strengthened if it coincides with a Smart Money zone of interest (ICT, OB, Fair Value Gap...).
5. Obvious Lack of Liquidity Above
If a level attracts too many visible or obvious orders (e.g., isolated old lows), it becomes a target... not a support.
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Conclusion: Don't trade the supports that everyone sees.
Trade those placed by the pros.
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