A real trader only cares about two things:
1. After I buy, the market trend proves what I should do;
2. If after I buy, the market trend proves I was wrong, what should I do?
No one can accurately predict future market conditions. The only thing you can rely on is rules—consistent trading rules—that place you on the favorable side of this probability game.
Profit is not gained by predicting market trends but relies on 'when you are wrong, you lose as little as possible, and when you are right, you earn as much as possible.' This is the biggest difference between practitioners and analysts.
Your purpose of buying is not to lose money, but to profit and to profit as much as possible: When the trend is favorable to you, you must be greedy and let profits run; when the trend is unfavorable to you, stop fantasizing and cut losses.
When will the market direction be clear?
Nothing is clear at any time!
Any market condition is a gamble with your own chips. Although many friends never consider themselves gambling, they simply think that a high probability does not count as gambling.
In fact, no one knows how tomorrow will go. Trading is making bets, wagering a certain cost for uncertain profits, just avoiding deadly risks when they arise; when risks are controllable, the future is worth seeing.
Most of the time, my trading is 'planning my trade and trading my plan': looking at the trends after the market closes and determining how to act according to the rules, then trading according to the rules during trading hours.
If I were to consider where to buy or sell during market fluctuations, I believe many times I would also be at a loss.
I never think that the specific buying point in trading plays a significant role. Only those pursuing small profits focus on specific buying points. Trading that is not aimed at small profit swings pays too much attention to specific buying points, which can lead to more losses and missed opportunities.
The specific buying point will not be my focus in trading. I look at the day's and previous trends after the market closes, use my experience to judge a direction, find a price range I consider suitable, and then buy and hold.
I never spend a lot of energy researching where prices will stop, yet many stock friends emphasize how important specific buying points are in their trading.
If precise buying points occupy a crucial position in your trading, and you are not pursuing small profit swings, it can only indicate that you do not understand trading strategies and do not comprehend how market trends are generated, nor do you know what you are operating.
Someone on Wall Street once conducted an experiment, showing several stock charts and asking a few elementary school students and a few people who had been trading for a few years to choose the direction. The result was that the students' winning rate was overwhelmingly higher than those who had been trading for years.
The reason you place so much importance on precise buying points is simply due to these few reasons:
1. You always hope to buy at the lowest point, expecting profit upon purchase, and cannot stand normal price pullbacks;
2. You think stop-loss is a disaster, so you always set your stop-loss very small.
You just overlook the importance of buying in a range, whether it's slightly higher or lower, far from being more important than missing the chance to buy. However, how many people miss opportunities in the face of a high probability of a rising trend just to pursue precise prices?
The most foolish person in the world is the one who thinks they have discovered a truth that others cannot see. I never expect to buy at the lowest point or sell at the highest point.
One key reason many people fail to achieve overall capital increase is that they cannot withstand the pullback of floating profits. In fact, floating profits are not your profits, and no one wishes for profits to retract.
Due to pullbacks, some profits are lost, but also larger profits can be captured because of pullbacks. This is an indispensable part of market trends, and I have become accustomed to it in my trading.
The amount of loss is something you can control; profit requires the support of market conditions.
My buying or selling is not based on my assumptions but is determined by actual market trends. At any time, I will not let myself fall into a passive position, and I never pursue perfect trades.
No matter what rules you use as a trading model, you must consider one thing: whether this rule strategy can achieve capital growth over a relatively long period, rather than relying on isolated trading days or the randomness of a particular trade as the basis for your trading!
I will not adjust my trading rules for specific market conditions. The only way is to stick to my rules, regardless of how the market moves.
Maintain your operational bottom line and consistency in trading rules. Not all market conditions should be profitable under your trading rules; you must understand and accept this.
The so-called consistency means that you follow your own rules at all times: the market and the outside world have no interference on you unless there is a significant loss within the rules.
In hindsight, the definition of consistency is that as long as you stick to your own rules and are not swayed by others or the market's temporary confusion, the market will reward you sooner or later.
When I couldn't yet achieve 'not surprised by rises or falls, calmly watching the flowers bloom and wither before the market,' a senior trader who was doing well in trading once told me,
As long as you do not allow significant capital drawdowns at any time while maintaining profitability at your own pace, even if it is very slow, the market will eventually reward you.
Now I deeply agree, and I don’t know that this reward has happened more than once.
A mature trader does not believe that trading has unique secrets. Even the most profitable trading strategies are already public and common. The only difference between winners and losers is the ability to resist constant temptations and adhere to their beliefs; there are no other secrets.
Many friends have told me various investment difficulties in the past, wanting to obtain some profits through trading.
I told her my entire trading strategy; she knows where I buy and also buys there. My trading is completely transparent to her, but after a while, our trading results are very different.
Because she always gets lost in the ever-present temptation of the market and cannot endure the fluctuations.
Either worrying about not being able to buy and buying too early, or wanting a lower price and not being able to buy, either worrying about selling late and selling early, or harboring too many fantasies and selling late.
This is trading; don’t always think that those who make money have some unique secret and are counting money behind closed doors.
This market has existed for over a hundred years. Any feasible or infeasible profit method has long been thoroughly researched. You will not find even a tiny bit of what predecessors have not explored.
So don’t think you have any new discoveries; more often, it’s a self-woven trap.
If I say the stock market risk is higher than the futures market risk, someone will surely say the futures market risk is higher than the stock market risk. If I say the stock market risk is not as high as the futures market risk, someone will surely say the futures market risk is higher than the stock market risk.
Fluctuations come from the market, but risks do not come from the market; they come from your trading, from whether you control risk.
In markets with very low risks, not controlling risk will amplify risks infinitely. In markets with very high risks, knowing how to control risk will significantly reduce risks.
You can't control the market, and you can't control your own trading; there is no greater risk than the one in your hands.
Whether it's a strategy or a plan, once established, it must be strictly executed, because only when you set strategies outside the market are you in a relatively objective position.
Once you are in the market, you lose rational judgment. The only way at this time is to execute the established strategy.
If you make random decisions in the market every day, then all the costs you have paid and the trading experiences you have accumulated will not help you. At this point, an experienced trader and a newcomer entering the market are no different; both are blind and hopeful.
Let’s simplify trading; there are too many factors influencing the market.
No one knows which factors will come into play. Following the market and chasing shadows is just being speculated. Simplify your trading, trade in your own way; that's investing, and that's life! I am the Eye of Heaven! Feel free to consult!