Future Market Pullback Prediction (Market PullbackMarketPullback#Marketpullsback ) [[[2]]] :
Practical analysis based on current data
. Overvalued market assessments (Overvaluation) :-
- Valuation metrics :
- [P/E ratio of the S&P 500] at ~25x (higher than the historical average of ~16x), indicating that stocks are trading at inflated prices compared to earnings.
- [Buffett Indicator (market capitalization/GDP)] exceeds 180%, indicating that the market is overvalued.
- Limited liquidity :
- Continued reduction of central bank balance sheets (such as the Fed, which has reduced its balance sheet by ~$1.3 trillion since 2022) limits the liquidity available for high-risk investments.
. Technical Indicators and Market Volatility (Technical & Volatility) :-
- VIX Index (Fear Index) :
- At low levels (~12 points), reflecting [risk satisfaction] among investors, which is a classic indicator of an impending market correction.
- Historical resistance levels :
- The S&P 500 index approaching the 5,500 point level (strong psychological resistance) without enough momentum may lead to mass sell-offs (profit-taking).