Swan analysts stated on May 3rd: 'This could be the strongest bullish momentum for Bitcoin since 2020!' As the market sentiment shifts, five key signals are accumulating energy for Bitcoin's explosion.
Signal 1: Gold takes a breather, Bitcoin takes the baton
Gold has skyrocketed in 2025, with a rise of 30% from the beginning of the year to now, and on April 22, it set a historical high of over $3,400 per ounce. However, this week gold has corrected by about 3%, while Bitcoin has risen against the trend by 4%. Analysts point out: 'Every time Bitcoin shows this catching-up trend, it signifies that a big market movement is about to start.' Looking back at the last similar situation, Bitcoin surged from $70,000 to $108,000.
Signal 2: Global liquidity rebounds from the bottom
Since 2021, the global M2 money supply has risen for the first time. Data from the St. Louis Federal Reserve shows that M2 grew by 4% in the past 12 months. Historical patterns indicate that when there is excessive money supply and a decline in trust in fiat currencies, Bitcoin tends to 'absorb' this market momentum—this trajectory has been followed in all previous bull markets.
Signal 3: Volatility approaching 2020 highs
Although the VIX index of the Chicago Options Exchange has retreated, there are undercurrents in the market. Economist Timothy Peterson pointed out that if the VIX falls below 18, it will enter a 'risk appetite' phase, which is favorable for Bitcoin. His high-accuracy tracking model predicts: if the VIX remains low, Bitcoin is expected to reach $135,000 within three months.
Signal 4: Key indicators trigger the start of a bull market
Swan analysts noticed that the MVRV ratio (Market Value to Realized Value ratio) has rebounded strongly from 1.74—historical experience shows that this rebound is a hallmark of the start of a Bitcoin bull market. The selling pressure in the $90,000-$100,000 range has clearly weakened, prices have broken through cost levels, and typical 'eve of explosion' structures have formed as retail selling has nearly disappeared.
Signal 5: Declining interest rates boost cryptocurrency prices
Peterson calculated that for every 25 basis points drop in interest rates, Bitcoin's price rises by about 10%. According to the current trend of declining interest rates, a cut of 75 basis points within the next 1-2 months is not impossible, which will directly push Bitcoin towards the $130,000 mark.
In the past month, Bitcoin has accumulated a rise of over 15%, closing at $98,000 on Friday, reaching a new high since February 21. When all five signals flash simultaneously, a long-awaited bull market storm may truly be on the horizon.
