Bitcoin is holding its ground just above $94,000, with markets anxiously awaiting signals from ongoing US-China trade discussions. While activity has slowed, optimism is quietly building that a diplomatic breakthrough could fuel the next major crypto rally.

🕵️‍♂️ Cautious Calm Before a Potential Storm

Bitcoin opened the new week relatively flat at $94,500, posting a modest 1.2% dip, as traders turned their attention to potential developments out of Beijing and Washington.

Trading volume remained muted on Monday, as several key Asian markets — including China, Japan, South Korea, and Hong Kong — were closed, contributing to lower liquidity across crypto exchanges.

Meanwhile, the CoinDesk 20 Index (CD20), a benchmark for top digital assets, slid 1.5%, dipping below 2,700 points.

🧭 Geopolitics Steer the Mood

Over the weekend, China’s Ministry of Commerce confirmed it's reviewing a U.S. proposal to resume trade negotiations. Former President Donald Trump hinted that Beijing is eager to make a deal, which injected a dose of cautious optimism into global markets.

Yet, sentiment among crypto investors remains mixed. Nick Ruck, director of LVRG Research, explained:

“Despite bouncing back from tariff-related shocks, risk assets like crypto are still under pressure. Investors remain hesitant due to the broader U.S. economic climate, even though Bitcoin is starting to decouple from traditional equities.”

🔒 Bitcoin Hits Resistance – But Could Break Out Soon

A new report from Glassnode highlights a tight price range between $93K and $95K, describing it as a critical resistance zone. This area overlaps with Bitcoin’s 111-day moving average and key cost-basis levels for short-term holders.

“Unless BTC can establish a solid base above this range, it risks slipping back into a consolidation phase — leaving many investors with unrealized losses,” the report cautions.

However, if Bitcoin clears this region, analysts say there’s less selling pressure above $100K, which could pave the way for a clean move into price discovery — and possibly a new all-time high.

💱 Asia’s Currencies Surge on Trade Buzz

While crypto drifts sideways, Asian currencies have been on the rise. The Chinese yuan climbed to a six-month high, and the Taiwanese dollar (NTD) jumped to a two-year peak — buoyed by strong foreign investment and tech optimism.

Key drivers:

🔹 Over $1.4 billion in equity inflows into Taiwan

🔹 TSMC’s 60% surge in quarterly profits restored confidence in the region’s tech sector

🔹 Taiwan’s central bank intervened to stabilize the currency but denied political interference

🧮 Will a Deal Happen? Prediction Markets Are Uncertain

Prediction platforms suggest:

🔹 A 21% chance that a formal trade agreement will be struck by June

🔹 A 47% chance that the White House reduces tariffs by the end of May

While the specifics of the potential trade deal remain vague, markets are clearly tuned in. Any breakthrough could be the catalyst Bitcoin needs to finally break out of its current sideways channel.

🧵 Summary:

🔹 BTC holds above $94K but struggles to break $95K resistance

🔹 Traders await US-China trade headlines to set the next move

🔹 Asian currencies rally, led by yuan and NTD

🔹 Glassnode sees BTC at a decision point — break out or pull back

🔹 Less sell pressure above $100K could fuel a move toward new highs


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